3 Things You Need to Know This Week | UK Budget, Canada GDP, Black Friday (Nov. 24, 2025)

Transcript

Mathew White:

Hello, and welcome to 3 Things You Need to Know this Week, our regular series designed to help you sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets. To stay up to date with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com. And with that, here are three things you need to know this week.

First, the UK Autumn budget.

On Wednesday, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will unveil changes to the government's tax and spending policies in the long awaited Autumn Budget. Ahead of the announcement, we've seen months of media speculation about what the UK's government might do, focused particularly on the questions whose taxes will the government raise in the budget, and by how much. And importantly for investors, what will this mean for markets? The UK Treasury and Chancellor Reeves are reportedly considering as many as 100 tax changes. And while not every potential change is a hike, the prospect of paying more to the government has understandably weighed on UK investors minds. It can be tempting to react to political speculation, such as by selling investments out of fear taxes will rise. But acting before you have all the facts can do more harm than good.

A preemptive move could lead to unnecessary taxes and transaction costs if the announced changes are different from what was feared. Moreover, if you move some assets to cash for the time being, this could mean missing out on potential returns if the bull market continues. From a broader market perspective, it's important to remember that tax changes themselves rarely dictate the direction of financial markets. The current global bull market has already repeatedly overcome challenges and uncertainties, including shifts in policy, regulation and taxation. Plus, the potential changes to Britain's budget have been widely discussed for months now. So, whatever changes Reeves announces this week, are unlikely to pack much negative surprise power for stocks. We'd urge investors to stay focused on their long-term strategy. For investors in the UK, and investors more broadly, resisting the urge to react to headlines or widely discussed policy changes can help you navigate these periods with greater confidence and resilience.

Next, Canada's Q3 GDP reading.

On Friday, Canada will release its preliminary third quarter GDP figures. While initial analyst expectations currently project slow but still positive growth for Q3, some worry about economic contraction for the second straight quarter, which could be labeled as a recession. But we think there is more to the economic story in Canada. First off, fears of a recession in Canada have been rising, particularly given Canada's exposure to US trade uncertainty. Just last month, a Bank of Canada survey found that approximately one third of businesses said they were planning for a recession. Many businesses also halted hiring, moving investments to maintain production rather than growth. And what about Canadian consumers? Well, two thirds of households anticipated a recession tied to weak labor market.

Now, it's true that Canada's economic data has wobbled recently, including Q2's negative GDP reading along with bouncy retail sales and rising unemployment. But this, along with dour sentiment, is all well known to forward looking stocks. Ultimately, this upcoming GDP report is just one piece of a much larger economic picture for the country. And while sentiment around the Canadian economy remains low, it's important to remember that what moves stocks is the difference between expectations and reality. This lower sentiment makes the likelihood of positive surprise much higher for Canadian stocks.

Finally, Black Friday sales figures. The US markets will be closed on Thursday and observance of Thanksgiving. And on Friday, media headlines will likely highlight Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. Many will watch the sales figures closely, but we don't think they hold much predictive power for stocks. Here's why: First, Black Friday isn't just one day anymore. Holiday season retail promotions now stretch from October into the new year. This spreads consumer spending across the entire fourth quarter, making a single day or weekend sales data less meaningful. The total Q4 retail sales figures offer a better, though still incomplete, picture of holiday demand.

Next, while headlines may promote record sales figures, these numbers are often inflated by recent price increases and don't tell the full story. For investors, metrics like year-over-year, same store sales and earnings growth are far more important. Most major retailers have already been reporting healthy profit growth throughout the year. So, the idea that this one weekend is make or break for stocks just doesn't hold up. Ultimately, markets are forward looking and consider the entire economic landscape, not just seasonal shopping trends. They weigh a vast array of global economic drivers to assess how reality might unfold over the next 3-to-30 months, not just a single backward looking retail sales report.

And that's it for this episode of 3 Things You Need to Know this Week.

For more of our thoughts on markets, check out This Week in Review, released every Friday. You can also visit FisherInvestments.com. Thanks for tuning in and don't forget to hit "Like" and "Subscribe!"