3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Fed Minutes, Housing Market, Fraud Prevention

Transcript

Rachael Green:

Hello and welcome to Three Things You Need to Know this Week.

This is our regular series designed to help you cut through the financial headlines and focus on what really matters for markets. For more market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com. And with that, here are three things you need to know this week.

First up, Fed minutes.

This Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July policy meeting. Many investors will be looking for clues about where interest rates may head next. These minutes may get extra scrutiny given the growing divide amongst policymakers in recent months. At the July meeting, the Fed left federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. But what caught markets' attention wasn't the decision itself. It was the dissent. Three Federal Open Market Committee members voted to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points. That raised speculations about a potential rate hike when the FOMC meets again in September. Some investors may dig into Wednesday's minutes, hoping for a clearer signal on what to expect in September. But as we noted in a recent MarketMinder article, they often speculate on the direction of monetary policy throughout a bull market's life cycle, rehashing those same worries over and over. Whether it's Fed independence, the path of rates or political pressure on Chair Warsh, stocks keep climbing that wall of worry. It's important to remember rates are only one of many variables affecting markets. Predicting policy moves in advance is not necessary for long-term investors. The minutes aren't full transcripts, either. They're edited summaries so important context can be missing. Even if the Fed does hike in September, incremental rate moves are unlikely to derail the broader bullish drivers we see today.

Next, is the US housing market.

On Tuesday, investors will get a fresh pulse check on the US housing market when the Census Bureau releases July data on housing starts and new building permits. The sector has been under a microscope lately. Some investors worry continued weakness could spill over into the broader economy and drag stocks lower. These concerns have been amplified by the latest readings, which suggest the housing market is sending conflicting signals. Housing starts jumped 19% month over month in June, following a sharp 15.4% drop in May that sent starts to a six-year low. Building permits told a softer story, falling 2.6% in June to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of around 1.4 million. That's a three-month low. When it comes to housing, here's some perspective we've shared in the past. Housing plays a smaller role in the economy than many people assume. The service sector makes up over three quarters of US economic output, and while housing costs weigh heavily on household budgets, the sector's direct influence on GDP growth is often overstated. Just as importantly, remember surprises move markets most. Housing struggles have been widely covered since the pandemic. That means much of this weakness has likely been priced into stocks already, limiting its ability to shock the market from here. This week's data are worth watching, but unlikely to change the broader picture.

Finally, let's talk about protecting yourself against financial fraud.

Fraud keeps evolving. New technology, including artificial intelligence, is giving scammers more sophisticated ways to target investors. In 2025 alone, the US Federal Trade Commission reported $15.9 billion dollars in consumer losses, up from $12 billion in 2024. And sadly, most fraud never gets reported at all, so actual losses are likely far higher. Recent headlines have hyped the risk of scammers using AI to exploit weaknesses in companies' cybersecurity. But scam losses don't just come from hackers forcing their way into computer systems. Often, consumers hand over their information or their money without realizing they've fallen for fraud. The good news is these scammers tend to follow a few consistent patterns. Once you know what to look for, they get much easier to spot. Scammers often impersonate trusted organizations like your bank, the IRS or a government agency. They may reach out through unofficial channels such as phone calls, texts, emails, social media or messaging apps. They'll usually claim there's an urgent problem or a prize that's just out of reach. Then they'll pressure you to act quickly, before you have time to verify anything. They also tend to demand payments in unusual forms, like cryptocurrency, gift cards or wire transfers. Protecting yourself comes down to a few disciplined habits. First, resist any pressure to act quickly. Second, never share personal or financial information when a request comes out of the blue. Third, verify a sender's identity through official channels before clicking links or returning calls. And finally, if something feels off, pause and talk to someone you trust. Whether that's a financial professional, a family member. or a close friend, a second opinion can save you a world of trouble. Remember, scammers rely on fear and confusion. Stay alert, double check the details and never let anyone rush you into a decision about your money.

And that's it for this episode of Three Things You Need to Know this Week.

For more of our market views, check out This Week in Review, released every Friday, or visit FisherInvestments.com. Thanks for watching, and don't forget to hit Like and Subscribe.