Personal Wealth Management / Expert Commentary

What You Need to Know About The Debt Ceiling

Ken Fisher, founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, explains why he dismisses debt ceiling debates as predictable political theater with minimal long-term market impact.

He explains that the debt ceiling—an artificial construct of Congress—is routinely adjusted and resolved without significant consequences for the markets. Instead of fixating on political drama, Ken advises investors to focus on what others aren’t worrying about, as those are the factors more likely to impact stocks in the long term.

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Transcript

Ken Fisher:

From time to time, we run up against a so-called debt ceiling limit imposed by Congress once upon a time and debt gets bigger, and then there's the debt ceiling, and, am I concerned about later this year as we approach that limit? Congress maybe not being able to deal with it and then running into a problem of a debt default and government shutdown, and, ducky lucky, the sky is falling. I'm going to say very simply, no, I am not.

You know, when the movie, Rocky, came out, you know, it was a big hit. It had a wonderful hero story. It had a classic villain, it had romance. It was a cheap, low-budget film that was a—relatively so—that was a blockbuster hit. I remember it when I was younger. And then, you get sequel after sequel after sequel after sequel, and, you know, when they come up with Rocky number 92.

Well, you know, I'm already long past wanting to see another Rocky flick, because within minor variations, you know what's going to happen. You can predict it in advance. It gets boring—as my grandchildren would say, boring— and this discussion is the same thing. As we get close, Congress won't do anything. Fears will rise; People will say, ducky, lucky the sky is about to fall; they'll do a bunch of screaming on both sides of the aisle in Congress. And then, just as you get a few days to them—we've seen this movie so many times before, it makes, you know, Rocky 92 look exciting, by comparison— they'll finally come to an agreement.

If they don't, still nothing will happen because they will three days later, or five days later. There is nothing about that  Debt limit that is anything other than artificial. It is a creature of Congress, it's something Congress adjusts, it's something Congress likes the drama about, and I'm just going to say to you,  so many people will worry about it—and a basic rule about markets is, focus on what they're not worrying about, not what they are, because what they are worrying about is already priced into stocks.

You don't have to worry about it. They're doing it for you. Thank them for doing it for you and go worry about something more important that other people aren't worrying about, because the things they're not worrying about, for good or for bad, that'll move stocks ahead. Thank you for listening to me.

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