Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—August 11 - August 15

In the US, July m/m headline consumer inflation decelerated to 0.2% while the y/y headline rate held steady at 2.7%. That seeming stability came as falling energy prices offset rising prices elsewhere. July core consumer inflation (which excludes food and energy) accelerated to 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. We don’t think tariffs are an economic benefit, but we do think related inflation fears are overblown—a brick in this bull market’s wall of worry. For more, please see our 8/12/2025 commentary, “July US CPI: Tariffs Don’t Fuel Scorching Inflation.” July industrial and manufacturing production each rose 1.4% y/y. July retail sales grew 0.5% m/m and 3.9% y/y, in line with consensus estimates.

In the UK, the first estimate of Q2 2025 GDP growth was 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y, above consensus forecasts. June GDP expanded 0.4% m/m and 1.4% y/y. June industrial production increased 0.7 % m/m and 0.2% y/y, surpassing forecasts. Manufacturing production grew 0.5% m/m and was flat y/y. In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q2 2025 GDP growth was 0.1% q/q and 1.4% y/y, in line with the previous estimate. June industrial production decreased 1.3% m/m and increased 0.2% y/y.

In Japan, the first estimate of Q2 2025 GDP growth was 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y, above consensus forecasts. June industrial production increased 2.1% m/m and 4.4% y/y, surpassing forecasts. June retail sales rose 2.0% y/y. In China, July retail sales grew 3.7% y/y and industrial production increased 5.7% y/y, both lower than consensus estimates. July money supply (M2) increased 8.8% y/y, higher than forecasts while loan growth increased 6.9% y/y, below expectations.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report August manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The UK, eurozone, and Japan report July consumer inflation numbers. The UK releases July retail sales, while Japan releases July trade data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.