Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—August 18 - August 22

In the US, the August flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 53.3 and 55.4, respectively, both higher than expected. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. On Friday, August 22, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave a keynote address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Many investors and pundits are expecting another Fed rate cut in September, but we believe it’s impossible to know what Fed officials will decide in future meetings. Additionally, the Fed is just one factor influencing the US economy, so we caution against overrating its market power. For more, please see our previous 8/11/2025 article: “Some Pre-Jackson Hole Perspective on Rate Cuts and Stocks.”

In the UK, June retail sales grew 1.7% y/y. The August flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 47.3 and 53.6, respectively. July consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y while the m/m figure slowed to 0.1%. July core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) was 3.8% y/y and 0.2% m/m. Inflation’s July rise garnered much attention and made the UK an increasingly visible outlier from the rest of the Western world. To us, the attention and the purported mystery of why inflation is so high is a prime example of overly dour sentiment toward UK stocks. For more, please see our 8/21/2025 commentary: “The UK’s Inflation Uptick Is a Non-Mystery.” In the eurozone, July consumer inflation remained at 2.0% y/y, matching June’s figure and consensus forecasts. July core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) also remained at 2.3% y/y, in line with estimates. The August flash HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.5 and 50.7, respectively.

In Japan, preliminary July imports and exports fell 7.5% y/y and 2.6% y/y, respectively. July consumer inflation was 0.1% m/m and 3.1% y/y. July core-core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) was 3.4% y/y. The August flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.9 and 52.7, respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The US releases July preliminary durable goods orders and its second estimate of Q2 2025 GDP. The eurozone reports July money supply (M3). Japan announces July preliminary industrial production, retail sales and unemployment data. China releases August manufacturing and services PMIs.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.