Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—January 26 - January 30

In the US, preliminary durable goods orders rose 5.3% m/m in November, above expectations. On Friday, President Trump announced he plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would succeed Jay Powell, whose term as Fed chair ends on May 15. While a change in Fed chair involves monetary policy risks, heavy media attention lowers the likelihood surprises catch markets off guard. Expect lots of speculation about what Warsh might advocate as Fed chair, but no one knows what a Fed chair will do until they’re actually in the role a while. We will be vigilant in watching how Fed developments unfold as the year progresses.

In the UK, December money supply (M4) increased 0.3% m/m. In the eurozone, the first estimate of Q4 2025 GDP growth was 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, above consensus forecasts. The December unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. December money supply (M3) increased 2.8% y/y, slightly lower than forecasts. 

In Japan, December preliminary industrial production decreased 0.1% m/m, but increased 2.6% y/y. The December unemployment rate remained at 2.6%, matching consensus forecasts. December imports and exports rose 5.2% y/y and 5.1% y/y, respectively. December retail sales fell 2.0% m/m and 0.9% y/y, lower than consensus estimates. In China, the January NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs)—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.3 and 49.4, respectively, both lower than expected. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan release January PMIs. The eurozone announces January consumer inflation figures and retail sales. The US reports January unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. The Bank of England and European Central Bank meet to set their respective monetary policies.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.