Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—July 28 - August 1

In the US, July nonfarm payrolls increased by only 73,000, well below expectations for 110,000. As part of the same report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised May and June’s job growth down by a combined 258,000 nonfarm payrolls. In response, President Trump ordered the firing the BLS’s head. We believe both the economic and political implications of these developments are likely less drastic than headlines portrayed. For more, please see our 8/1/2025 article, “Market Perspective on the Data, Jobs and Debate Over July’s Employment Report.” The final July S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised slightly higher to 49.8. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.25 – 4.5%, in line with expectations. The first estimate of Q2 2025 GDP showed 3.0% annualized growth, above consensus estimates and a reversal from Q1’s 0.5% decline. Overall, we believe the global economy likely continues expanding this year despite tariff impacts, but it is entirely possible we see some more weak reports before we get there. For more, please see our 7/30/2025 commentary, “Q2 GDP Was Iffy. Markets Already Knew.”

In the UK, June money supply (M4) increased 0.3% m/m, matching forecasts. The final July S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was 48.0, revised lower from the preliminary estimate. In the eurozone, the first estimate of Q2 2025 GDP growth was 0.1% q/q and 1.4% y/y, both above consensus forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 6.2% in June, below expectations. July flash headline and core (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) consumer inflation held steady at 2.0% y/y and 2.3% y/y, respectively. The final July HCOB Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, in line with the initial estimate.

In Japan, June imports rose 0.3% y/y while exports fell -0.5% y/y. Unemployment remained at 2.5% in June, matching forecasts. June preliminary industrial production increased 1.7% m/m and 4.0% y/y, surpassing forecasts. June retails sales grew 1.0% m/m and 2.0% y/y. The final July Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was 48.9, higher than expected. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. In China, the final July NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.3 and 50.1, respectively, lower than expected. The final July Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 49.5, below forecasts.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone, China and Japan release final July services PMIs. The eurozone reports June retail sales. China publishes July inflation, loan growth, money supply (M2) and trade data. The Bank of England meets to set monetary policy.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.