Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—June 29 - July 3

In the US, the June final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs) was 53.9, lower than expected. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, sharply below expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% in June, slightly below consensus forecasts.

In the UK, the June final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 52.5 and 48.8, respectively. May money supply (M4) increased 0.1% m/m. The second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP growth was 0.6% q/q and 0.9% y/y. In the eurozone, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.2% in May, slightly below consensus forecasts. May money supply (M3) increased 3.2% y/y, higher than forecasts. The June final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 51.4 and 49.4, respectively, both higher than expected. June flash consumer inflation decelerated to 2.8% y/y. June flash core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) decelerated to 2.4% y/y.

In Japan, May industrial production increased 0.5% m/m and decreased 1.7% y/y. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.5% in May, matching consensus forecasts. May retail sales grew 1.9% m/m and 5.3% y/y. The June final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 54.8 and 52.2, respectively. In China, the June NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 50.3 and 50.2, respectively. The June RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMIs—which include smaller businesses—were 51.7 and 54.1, respectively, both higher than expected.

The Week Ahead:

The US reports final June Services PMI. The eurozone reports May retail sales. Japan reports June bank loans data, and China announces June inflation figures.

Source for all data cited is FactSet.  This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.