Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—June 30 - July 4

In the US, the June final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were both 52.9. The final manufacturing reading was higher than the initial estimate, but the final services reading was lower than the flash estimate. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. June nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations for 110,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in June, better than consensus forecasts.

In the UK, the second estimate of Q1 2025 GDP growth was 0.7% q/q and 1.3% y/y, in line with estimates. The June final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 47.7, in line with expectations, and 52.8, slightly above expectations, respectively. May money supply (M4) increased 0.2% m/m. In the eurozone, preliminary June consumer inflation accelerated to 2.0% y/y, while core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) remained at 2.3% y/y. The June final HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.5 and 50.5, respectively, both higher than the initial June flash estimates. The unemployment rate increased to 6.3% in May. May money supply (M3) increased 3.9% y/y, slightly below forecasts. 

In Japan, the June final Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.1 and 51.7, respectively. May preliminary industrial production increased 0.5% m/m, but decreased 1.8% y/y. In China, the June Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.4, higher than expected, and 50.6, lower than expected, respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The UK announces May GDP as well as industrial and manufacturing production data. The eurozone releases May retail sales, while Japan reports June bank loans. China releases June inflation, loan growth and money supply (M2) figures.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.