Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—May 12 - May 16

In the US, April consumer inflation increased 0.2% m/m and eased to 2.3% y/y, below estimates. April core consumer inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% m/m and remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y. April industrial production was flat m/m and increased 1.5% y/y. April manufacturing production decreased 0.4% m/m and increased 1.2% y/y. April retail sales rose 0.1% m/m, above expectations.

In the UK, unemployment ticked up to 4.5% in March, matching consensus forecasts. March industrial production fell 0.7% m/m and 0.7% y/y, respectively. March manufacturing production fell 0.8% m/m and 0.8% y/y, both below expectations. The first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP growth was 0.7% q/q and 1.3% y/y, above forecasts. March GDP grew 0.2% m/m and 1.1% y/y, both above expectations. Looking ahead, we believe the UK can continue to beat dreary expectations. When sentiment is as low as it is for the UK, even modest growth can generate positive surprise and support the bull market. For more, please see our 5/15/2025 commentary, “ The UK Economy Keeps Outshining Expectations.” In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q1 2025 GDP growth was 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y. March industrial production increased 2.6% m/m and 3/6% y/y.

In Japan, the first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% q/q and expanded 1.7% y/y. March industrial production increased 0.2% m/m and 1.0% y/y. Retail sales fell 4.2% y/y in March, while April bank loans increased 2.4% y/y. In China, April loan growth increased 7.2% y/y, below expectations. April money supply (M2) increased 8.0% y/y, higher than forecasts.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan release May preliminary Purchasing Managers Indexes’ (PMIs). The UK, eurozone and Japan report April consumer inflation. The UK and China release April retail sales. Japan reports April trade data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.