Markets have undoubtedly challenged investors’ patience recently—but in our view, such markets require resolve, particularly considering extant underlying economic resilience.
May was a rocky month for investors, and Friday, June’s opening day continued the trend—global markets dropping sharply. Investors were seemingly rattled by a handful of data points that weren’t so stellar:
To be sure, not the best data we’ve seen reported in a while, and markets seemingly overall agreed.
Taken together, the data arguably paint a rather more mixed picture than many in the media suggested.
Which seemingly makes the case for taking in the global picture’s entirety—not just the good or bad slices—before making a forward-looking assessment of markets’ or economies’ likely paths. For example, reading broadly Friday, you might have uncovered a less dour outlook on the US unemployment report, like this one—highlighting the importance of considering multiple outlooks on the same data point. Not everyone will have the same view, and it’s crucial for investors to check their biases at the door (to the extent they’re able) and attempt to discern what’s news from what’s actually noise.
By no means are we dismissing the less-than-stellar data; nor are we recommending which news sources to read and which to ignore—on the contrary, the editorial staff at MarketMinder reads near-anything and everything to get a feel for the overall media pulse. Which we believe is a critical approach to dissecting economic news—especially when it comes to sentiment, a notoriously fickle indicator.
Ultimately, there’s little in recent data to suggest much has fundamentally changed from what was already known: US unemployment is still elevated and job growth isn’t fast, but it is, in fact, growth; US GDP growth could be faster but isn’t contracting; the eurozone has pockets of weakness and strength, balancing out to overall flattish growth or, at times, slight contraction. The reality is, while Friday may have written a new bar or two, the song overall remains the same.
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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.