Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Nov. 19-23, 2012

A rash of US data, European Union meetings and some Chinese economic indicators likely round out the holiday-shortened week.

Monday, 11/19:

US October existing home sales and the housing market index

Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy announcement

The BOJ is expected to hold off from adding more stimulus to its economy before December 16 parliamentary elections.

Tuesday, 11/20:

German October PPI

US October housing starts and building permits

Of late, housing data continue to show broad improvements. However, the economy has grown just fine without a material housing recovery to date. In our view, swifter housing growth now would merely provide an incremental tailwind to growth from here.

Japanese October merchandise trade

EcoFin Meeting

Ahead of the broader European Summit on Thursday, Finance Ministers of all 27 EU countries will meet in Brussels to discuss the EU budget and details of Greece’s bailout, among other things.

NYMTA announces cost estimates for Sandy

Many folks likely look to these cost estimates to extrapolate its economic impact. However, our research shows the long-term market and economic impact of natural disasters is negligible at best and fleeting at worst. For more, see our 11/2/2012 cover story, “Hurricanes and Broken Windows.”

Wednesday, 11/21:

US MBA purchase applications, weekly jobless claims, PMI manufacturing, consumer sentiment and leading economic index

Many US economic reports were moved up a day on account of Thanksgiving on Thursday—there’s little evidence moving the data releases up a day or the day off itself impacts results in the long term.

China Conference Board leading economic index and PMI flash manufacturing index

Thursday, 11/22:

US stock and bond markets are closed for Thanksgiving Day

Two-day European Union summit kicks off

The heads of state of all 27 EU countries assemble in Brussels to debate the 2014-2020 budget and plans for Greece, among other things. The UK’s David Cameron stands in the way of a clear budget vote as he continues to threaten a veto if there are no cuts to the budget.

French, German and eurozone November flash PMI composite

Canadian September retail sales

China HSBC manufacturing PMI

Japanese October trade data

Friday, 11/23:

German Q3 GDP and November Ifo sentiment survey

Italian September retail sales

October Canadian CPI (Inflation)

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.