Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: As this piece touches on some political themes, please note MarketMinder is nonpartisan and prefers no politician or political party over another. Our interest is solely with the titular theme: the “sell America” trade. The article posits the recently weakening US dollar reflects a broader shift: “The move away from the United States is being driven by more fundamental concerns: unease about the safety of U.S. markets at a time of geopolitical upheaval, threats against the nation’s central bank, ballooning government debt and worries over the fundamental rule of law. Some investors also feel whipsawed by the White House’s pattern of erratic policymaking.” Some are valid points, particularly as it pertains to tariffs and central bank independence. But most of them strike us as false fears. For instance, US government debt is manageable right now—per the St. Louis Federal Reserve, federal interest payments are around 18% of federal tax revenue. That is admittedly the highest since the early 1990s, though double-digit ratios didn’t prevent a decade-long expansion, either. As for “weak dollar” chatter, the worries here seem overstated, too, especially since a currency’s relative strength isn’t inherently good or bad for the broader economy or markets—nor is present weakness very unique, considering the dollar nearly parallels its movement in 2017/2018. Lastly, even if the article’s claims were true, this wouldn’t be reason to “sell America.” Markets price popular investing trends like this near instantly, so acting on any of the well-known developments here is tantamount to acting on old information. Our takeaway from this piece is that some negative sentiment toward US assets lingers—not as much compared to overseas, but analyses like these suggest US markets still have some wall of worry to climb.

MarketMinder’s View: Some political coverage here, so please note MarketMinder is nonpartisan. We highlight these developments for their potential economic and/or market effects (or lack thereof) only. Namely, this piece suggests House Speaker Mike Johnson faces an uphill battle in passing a vote this week to end the partial government shutdown that began over the weekend. House Republicans hold a thin majority, so Johnson will need to rally almost all members for the vote. But as the article points out, “Johnson’s tiny vote margin gives any one or two GOP members powerful leverage if they want changes or concessions. Johnson as soon as Monday is expected to swear in Christian Menefee, a Democrat who just won a Texas special election to represent Texas’ 18th Congressional District after former Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death last year. That will bring the majority to 218-214.” Along with the thinning margin, some Republicans aren’t satisfied with the deal (e.g., the timeline of the Department of Homeland Security’s funding extension), further complicating matters. While it is impossible to determine when this partial government closure will end—and understandably frustrating for constituents—this is a nothingburger for stocks. Consider, last October’s government shutdown affected a much larger slice of the government, shutting down entire agencies for weeks. Yet no bear market or recession emerged. By contrast, this shutdown is much smaller. If a larger one didn’t wreck markets then, why would a more limited one do so now?

MarketMinder’s View: First, the data: The RatingDog China General Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in January from December 2025’s 50.1 (readings above 50 indicate expansion). This gauge (which focuses on smaller, export-oriented private firms) was a bit better than the National Bureau of Statistics’ official PMI (which includes larger, state-owned firms and clocked a 49.3 reading last month). RatingDog’s reading only met analysts’ expectations, but this point seems worth cheering to us: “Total new orders expanded for the eighth straight month while new export orders rebounded, primarily buoyed by increased demand from overseas buyers, particularly Southeast Asia.” This is a forward-looking positive for Chinese manufacturing since today’s orders are tomorrow’s production. Oh, and strong export demand for the world’s number one goods exporter provides another bit of evidence that trade war fears haven’t hit as hard as many anticipated. Beyond the data roundup, the article shares a whole lot of negativity toward China, rehashing economists’ warnings around deflation and lackluster government stimulus. Now, we aren’t saying these folks are correct or incorrect. But it is worth noting sentiment toward the world’s second-largest economy remains low even as it has contributed to global GDP growth alongside these worries for months.