Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: The 43-day government shutdown that sidelined numerous government agencies last fall is affecting some prominent economic datasets, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) December CPI the latest example. Without BLS agents conducting their typical data collection last October and throughout much of November, the agency is opting to “carry forward” their last known price on several goods and services to December, which some experts interviewed here warn will lead to a “muddy” report. We can debate the merits of the BLS’s decision, but for markets, this is a benign issue. Markets price the economic factors most likely to sway corporate profits 3 – 30 months ahead, so the components baked into December’s CPI report—however accurate, come Thursday—are probably priced in already (outside of potential sentiment-based short-term wiggles). As comprehensive as the BLS’s measure may be, it isn’t the only source of price data, so markets were never flying blind on the inflation front.

MarketMinder’s View: There are several publicly traded companies mentioned here, so please note MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. We are here solely for the broader theme: building up sensible investing habits. The article follows three young investors who learned about the stock market amid the postpandemic “meme stock” era, when some hit it big and others crashed out—a “wild west” environment that drew in some speculative types and spooked others. However, new data seems to suggest that more young folks have warmed up and/or begun investing with an eye on the long term. “And while observers worried that the meme stock craze would lead a generation of investors to double down on risky, short-term bets, more than 60 percent of investors with less than five years of experience say they are more patient investors now than when they began, according to Charles Schwab’s 2025 Modern Wealth survey.” We love to hear this. From the jump, we saw meme stocks as a short-lived moment of froth that drove some fear and greed among investors, regardless of age. But with experience, it appears some newer investors are internalizing some critical lessons that will serve them well (e.g., maxing out retirement plans and diversifying). Perhaps the kids will be all right indeed.

MarketMinder’s View: It took 25 years of talks, but the EU finally has a free-trade deal with South America’s “Mercosur” bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). It isn’t quite over the finish line, as it needs parliamentary ratification, but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen secured the ok from a majority of EU heads of state, clearing the way for her to sign the pact next week. Like all trade deals, we don’t expect this to be an immediate boon for either side. Trade pacts take effect slowly, with gradual phase-in periods, which saps surprise power and delays the economic effects. To us, this one is significant more for what it shows: The US’s tariffs are motivating the rest of the world to push for freer trade among themselves—not retaliation and protectionist actions. The article details some of this (which reminds us, MarketMinder is politically agnostic, preferring no politician nor any party and assessing developments for their economic and market implications only), showing how reality on the trade front has shaped up far better than most expected when President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs last April. US trade may have more costs and friction, but trade getting freer elsewhere is a long-term positive and perhaps a near-term sentiment booster as positive surprise continues.