Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: This piece focuses less on the reduction in the headline tariff rate and more on refunds of tariffs paid under the now-defunct “Liberation Day” regime the Supreme Court shot down in February. It argues this is a stealth boost to earnings, and therefore, a hidden tailwind to stocks receiving refunds (and it mentions a few of those specifically, so please remember that MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations). But here is the thing: The idea no one is talking about this is a little silly, considering it was among the most-discussed factors worldwide ahead of the war. It still is heavily discussed outside America. And the refunds in question here are largely one-offs, as some analysts quoted here point out. In sum, a widely anticipated one-off is unlikely to sway markets much, as stocks would pre-price it and look to lasting factors affecting profits over the next 3 – 30 months. Tariff talk and refunds are largely in the rearview and irrelevant to where stocks head from here, in our view. If you check the relative return since February of some of the names mentioned as winners, you will find more lagged than led, which hints at the irrelevance of this “tailwind.”

MarketMinder’s View: Since the war began, the fear of oil prices driving a resurgence in white-hot inflation has run wild globally—especially in Europe. But evidence of this never really emerged and now the uptick is already fading. Germany’s consumer price index cooled from 2.6% y/y in May to 2.3% in June. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell -0.3%, the second-straight monthly drop. All this is largely because oil prices have plummeted since reaching a high in early April, highlighting war fears’ fleeting effect on commodity markets. As for worries over prices spilling over into other categories beyond energy, there was never a real sign that was happening, and it still isn’t. Core prices (excluding fuel and food) rose 2.5% y/y, matching May’s rate and the rate seen in five of six months this year (April’s fleeting downtick to 2.3% was the exception). Friends, we told you throughout this year’s war drama that energy prices don’t fuel inflation—absent swift money supply growth, they drive substitution. This is evidence of that playing out.

MarketMinder’s View: To sum up all the data in May’s US Job Openings, Layoffs and Turnover report, job openings ticked up modestly, hiring ticked down somewhat and layoffs remain low. There is little here that deviates from recent trends of a “low hire, low fire” economy. Jobs data are inherently late-lagging, so they are largely irrelevant for stocks, which look forward. But this is a confirmation of the steady economic growth trends we have seen during 2026, which should persist.