Global stocks rose amid generally positive economic data.
Hurricane Harvey caused significant loss of life, suffering and property damage across Southern Texas and Louisiana. As with any major natural disaster in recent American history, this isn’t a time to fear recession or a bear market. It’s a moment to hope and pray for our friends and neighbors. Natural disasters have tragic human costs but rarely have much, if any, lasting impact on stocks. (For more commentary on Hurricane Harvey, please see our MarketMinder.com articles We Need to Talk About Harvey and How to Help Houston: Some Resources to Identify Worthy Charities).
On the economic front, Q2 2017 GDP was revised up to 3.0% annualized. July personal consumption grew 0.3% m/m, slightly missing expectations. The August ISM manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 58.8, beating estimates and indicating growth. August nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, increasing by 156,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, slightly higher than forecast.
European data were largely positive. The August eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 57.4, in line with forecasts. The July eurozone unemployment rate met expectations at 9.1%, remaining at its lowest point since February 2009, while UK manufacturing PMI accelerated to 56.9 in August.
Japanese data were likewise largely positive. The August Markit manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 52.2 but remained in expansion. July imports and exports grew 16.3% y/y and 13.4% y/y, respectively. As expected, the July unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.8%. August auto sales also rose to 4.7% y/y. In China, official August non-manufacturing and services PMIs slowed to 53.4 and 52.6, respectively.
The US reports non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders and auto sales. The eurozone releases retail sales, services PMI and the last estimate of Q2 GDP. The UK releases industrial and manufacturing production and services PMI. China reports bank lending, money supply and trade data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.