3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Global PMIs, US Jobs, US Consumer Sentiment (Jan. 5, 2026)

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Don Gaston:

Hello and welcome to 3 Things You Need to Know this Week— our regular series designed to help you sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets. To stay up-to-date with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com.

 And with that, here are three things you need to know this week.

First, a check-in on global business.

This week, financial data provider S&P global publishes final December Purchasing Managers' Index data for the United States, the United Kingdom and the eurozone. These PMIs, as they're known, should provide a clearer picture of how businesses are faring as they enter the new year.

Despite worries about global economic health, initial December PMIs showed private sector activity across major developed economies holding steady— an underappreciated positive in our view.

Take the UK, for example. Tariff, inflation and tax fears dominated British headlines in 2025, and UK composite PMI briefly dipped below 50 in April and May at the height of tariff uncertainty. But since then, UK composite PMI has spent the rest of the year over 50, with the initial December reading rising to 52.1.

In the US, the composite PMI figure has dipped slightly in recent months. But at 53, it still signals healthy growth. To us, these latest PMI figures suggest businesses continued to feel more confident than not at year end.

The key takeaway for investors? We think PMIs still demonstrate that businesses and the global economy are more resilient than they often get credit for, and remain supportive of this ongoing bull market.

Next, a look at the latest US jobs figures.

This week, we'll get a variety of US jobs data, including the closely watched Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payrolls and unemployment report. The latest US jobs data gives a bit of a mixed picture, but we don't believe this is a warning sign for stocks.

Non-farm payrolls fell by 105,000 jobs in October, but in November they grew by 64,000— beating expectations. Even with the rebound in jobs growth, however, headline unemployment ticked up slightly from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November. Now, investors will likely be watching closely to see whether unemployment continued to rise in December. But initial jobless claims for the first three weeks of the month remained in line with figures seen throughout the year, suggesting to us that unemployment likely didn't spike in December.

Now, we certainly empathize with those affected by job loss. But the good news, as we highlighted in a recent MarketMinder article, is that the unemployment rate has risen mostly because the number of individuals entering the workforce grew more than the number of those employed, meaning more people were out there seeking work. The number of people working part time for economic reasons rose, as well.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a mixed picture when it comes to jobs data in the US.

But we don't think long-term investors should worry about what this data means for stocks or the broader economy. Jobs data is notoriously volatile, and it tends to be backward looking, reflecting what has already happened in the economy. Stocks, on the other hand, are forward looking, pricing in future expectations.

Instead of focusing on short-term employment data fluctuations, we think it's more important to maintain a steady, disciplined approach to investing. Economic data will always have its ups and downs, but staying focused on your long-term goals and your strategy should help drive success over time.

Finally, a look at consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Later this week, we'll get the University of Michigan's preliminary US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data for January. While the broader consumer confidence element of this report usually steals the headlines, we think it's worth taking a moment to explore the inflation expectations component.

In 2025, tariffs raised many consumers' fears of resurgent inflation, with both 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations spiking in the spring. But since then, inflation expectations have trended downward. Now, that said, with 1-year expectations at 4.2% in December, they remain well above the latest consumer price index reading of 2.7%. And longer-term inflation expectations also remain elevated, with the 5-year reading at 3.2% in December.

To us, this highlights just how overblown tariff fears proved in 2025. The good news for investors is that continued elevated inflation expectations suggest there is still room for more positive surprise in 2026— especially if global money supply continues to grow at moderate rates, as it has recently.

And that's it for this episode of 3 Things You Need to Know This Week.

For more of our thoughts on markets, check out This Week in Review, released every Friday. You can also visit FisherInvestments.com. Thanks for tuning in and don't forget to hit like and subscribe!