3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Fed Meeting Minutes, Global PMIs, Tariffs (Nov. 17, 2025)

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Hello and welcome to Three Things You Need to Know This Week, our regular series designed to help you sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets. To stay up to date with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com. And with that, here are three things you need to know this week. First, Fed meeting minutes. On November 21st, the Fed will publish minutes from its October policy meeting, where it cut its policy rate by 25 basis points. When these Fed meeting minutes are published, some investors are eager to analyze them, hoping for clues about what the Fed might do next. Regardless of what the Fed meeting minutes say, it's impossible to know how Fed officials will interpret data in the coming weeks leading up to their December meeting. We think attempting to predict what the Fed will do next is futile, considering they often say one thing and do another. Additionally, keep in mind that Fed meeting minutes are not full transcripts. They're edited and redacted, only showing what the Fed approves for public release. So, while some might treat them as a peek behind the curtain, they're far from the full story and may lack critical context. As we've noted before, monetary policy is just one factor influencing markets. Its impact isn't predetermined, whether positive or negative. That's why we believe long-term investors don't need to focus on interpreting curated meeting minutes, or on trying to predict the Fed's next move. Next, global PMIs. On Friday, we get initial November Purchasing Manager Index, or PMI, data for major economies including the US, UK and eurozone. PMIs measure the health of the manufacturing and services sectors based on surveys of purchasing managers from a wide range of companies. Readings above 50 indicate more firms reporting expansion than contraction. Global PMI has been consistently positive in 2025. For example, the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI, which provides a broad snapshot of manufacturing activity across more than 40 developed countries, rose from 52.4 in September to 52.9 in October. To us, this indicates global economic growth isn't driven exclusively by the US. For those who may worry that US economic growth is overconcentrated in AI investments, global PMI data indicate healthy economic growth in many countries around the world, even those without major technology firms or AI-related industries. All in all, we believe global economic growth is much broader and more resilient today than many appreciate, helping set the type of positive surprise that should continue to support the ongoing bull market. Finally, an update on the Supreme Court's tariff case. On November 5th, the Supreme Court heard arguments over the legality of many of the tariffs President Trump announced earlier this year. Since then, we've been closely watching financial headlines and pundit commentary to gauge where investor sentiment stands. While we can't predict how or when the court will rule on the matter, much of the media coverage has focused on the uncertainty a decision against the tariffs could bring. But here's the thing: Markets tend to reprice widely known concerns. So, if the court rules against the administration's tariffs, we think any market downside tied to the unknowns will likely be short lived if it happens at all. To be clear, we view tariffs as economic negatives and generally bad for stocks. They create friction in global trade and add a near permanent layer of uncertainty, especially when enacted outside legislation, as President Trump's were. That said, this year's tariffs, while harmful, weren't as severe as markets initially feared back in April. The good news: Investors and markets are well aware of the potential impacts of this ruling. That means when the Supreme Court's decision does come, it's unlikely to catch markets off guard. Markets are pricing in potential risks now, lowering the surprise factor---a positive for stocks and investors. And that's it for this episode of Three Things You Need to Know This Week. For more of our thoughts on markets, check out This Week in Review, released every Friday. You can also visit FisherInvestments. com. Thanks for tuning in and don't forget to hit like and subscribe!