3 Things You Need to Know This Week | So Goes January, Fed Minutes, Housing Market (Dec. 29, 2025)

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Stephanie Kuehne:

Hello and welcome to 3 Things You Need to Know This Week— our regular series designed to help you sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets.

To stay up-to-date with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com.

And with that, here are the three things you need to know this week.

First, the "So Goes January" investing adage.

As we approach the new year, you may hear some investors talking about "So goes January, so goes the year." This idea is that the January performance, or in some versions, its first few trading days, can predict the market's direction for the rest of the year.

But here's the truth: this is just another market myth. While historical averages may hint at patterns, they also include plenty of years where this January effect didn't hold up. In fact, in years where January was down, full year returns were positive more frequently than not.

Even if there was some predictive value in seasonal investing patterns like "So goes January", once a trend like this becomes widely known, it would quickly get baked into stock prices in advance, sapping its power to move stocks.

Markets are unpredictable in the very short term, and chasing seasonal trends is more guesswork than strategy. Instead, we believe long-term investors are better served with a disciplined investing approach that's built to weather all seasons—not just one month.

Next, December Fed meeting minutes.

On Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve will release minutes from its December policy meeting, where it cut rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25%, for the third time in 2025, lowering its Fed Funds Rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. As usual, many investors will eagerly dissect these meeting notes, searching for clues about what the Fed officials are thinking and what they might do next.

Now, these minutes often create headline buzz, but it's important to keep this in perspective. Predicting the Fed's actions is a tricky game. Officials frequently adjust their stance based on new data, and what seems clear today could change tomorrow. Plus, these minutes aren't full transcripts. They're carefully edited and curated for public release, meaning that they may lack critical context and nuance.

It's also worth remembering that monetary policy is just one of many factors influencing markets. Its effects aren't predetermined, and trying to time the market based on Fed speculation often leads to more frustration than success.

Finally, a year-end look at the housing market. T

his week features several US housing market data releases, including home price index data for October. Housing in the US has been a hot topic throughout the year, with many investors wondering where home prices headed. While prices in some areas have cooled this year, the overall housing market appears resilient. Limited housing supply continues to support prices in many regions, even as higher mortgage rates have tempered demand in the last couple of years.

It's important to remember the housing market is highly localized. Trends can vary significantly from one city or neighborhood to the next, and national averages don't always tell the full story. For many of us, a home is more than just a place to live— it's a valuable asset and a cornerstone of financial security.

While the housing market's health can impact consumer confidence, spending and borrowing trends, it's important to view real estate within the broader economic picture.

For investors, keeping a balanced perspective is essential. Though housing certainly plays an important role in the economy, the US services sector—which makes up three quarters of GDP— has a much larger influence on economic growth and the stock market. So, while housing market headlines can certainly be eye catching, we think the sector's influence on the US economy is often overstated.

And that's it for this episode of 3 Things You Need to Know This Week.

For more of our thoughts on markets, check out This Week in Review, released every Friday. You can also visit FisherInvestments.com. Thanks for tuning in, and don't forget to hit like and subscribe!