Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—December 15 - December 19

In the US, November headline consumer inflation decelerated to 2.7% y/y, below estimates. November core consumer inflation (excluding food and energy) slowed to 2.6% y/y. The December preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 51.8 and 52.9, respectively, both lower than expected. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. October retail sales remained flat m/m and grew 3.5% y/y. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, above consensus forecasts. November nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding expectations. Headlines painted a rather bleak picture for the economy following the jobs report, but it’s better than the top-line numbers imply once you look under the hood. For more, please see our 12/16/2025 commentary, “What the Long-Awaited Jobs Data Really Revealed.”

In the UK, November headline consumer inflation and November core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) both slowed to 3.2% y/y, below estimates. Despite the slowdown in inflation, UK sentiment remains skeptical on the health of the economy. For more, please see our 12/17/2025 commentary, “UK Inflation Cools More Than Expected … Raising Fears?” The December preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 51.2 and 52.1, respectively, both higher than expected. November retail sales fell 0.1% m/m but grew 0.6% y/y. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25 basis points to 3.75%. In the eurozone, November headline consumer inflation decelerated to 2.1% y/y. November core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) remained unchanged at 2.4% y/y. The December preliminary HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.2 and 52.6, respectively, both lower than expected. October industrial production increased 0.8% m/m and 2.0% y/y. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.15%.

In Japan, November consumer inflation remained unchanged at 3.0% y/y. November core-core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) slowed to 3.0% y/y. The December flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.7 and 52.5, respectively. Preliminary November imports and exports rose 1.3% y/y and 6.1% y/y, respectively. October retail sales fell 5.5% y/y. In China, November industrial production increased 4.8% y/y, lower than forecasts. November retail sales grew 1.3% y/y, missing consensus estimates. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% in November, matching consensus forecasts.

The Week Ahead:

The US and UK announce Q3 GDP figures. The US and Japan release industrial production. The US reports durable orders and manufacturing production data. The UK and Japan report trade data. Japan reports retail sales and unemployment data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.