Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets — July 27 - July 31

In the US, the first estimate of Q2 2026 GDP showed 1.5% annualized growth, below consensus forecasts. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with expectations. Preliminary durable goods orders rose 0.3% m/m in June. This growth in orders, while below expectations, is evidence of the US economy’s broad-based growth. For more, please see our 07/29/2026 commentary, “Quick Hit: Durably Broad-Based Growth.”

In the UK, June money supply (M4) increased 0.8% m/m, higher than forecasts. The Bank of England held their benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75%. In the eurozone, the first estimate of Q2 2026 GDP growth was 0.4% q/q and 0.9% y/y, above consensus forecasts. While sentiment in Europe is relatively dim, this growth in GDP signals that reality is beating expectations. For more, please see our 07/30/2026 commentary, “On Fires and GDP.” July flash consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% y/y. July flash core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) accelerated to 2.5% y/y. The June unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3%, above consensus forecasts. June money supply (M3) increased 3.3% y/y.

In Japan, June preliminary industrial production increased 1.3% m/m and 4.2% y/y, far surpassing forecasts. The unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5% in June, matching consensus forecasts. June retail sales decreased 4.1% m/m and grew 0.5% y/y. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 1.0%. In China, the July NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs)—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.2 and 49.0, respectively, both lower than expected. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China report July PMIs. The US reports July unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. The eurozone reports June retail sales. China releases July consumer inflation and trade data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.