Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—March 2 - March 6

In the US, the final February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) came in at 51.6 and 51.7, respectively. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. February nonfarm payrolls decreased by -92,000, below forecasts. The February unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, slightly higher than expected. January retail sales declined 0.2% m/m but rose 3.2% y/y. The ongoing Middle East war between the US-Israel and Iran continues contributing to regional instability. In particular, the conflict has raised concerns about disruptions in global energy flows, with oil prices jumping above $90/barrel. While we will continue closely monitoring energy market developments, we believe the current oil price spike will likely prove temporary as fears over an extended energy shortage eventually ease.

In the UK, the final February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 51.7 and 53.9, respectively. January money supply (M4) shrank 0.1% m/m, lower than forecasts. In the eurozone, the final February HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.8 and 51.9, respectively. January retail sales fell 0.1% m/m but rose 2.0% y/y. February flash consumer inflation accelerated to 1.9% y/y. February flash core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) accelerated to 2.4% y/y. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in January, less than forecast.

In Japan, the final February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 53.0 and 53.8, respectively. The unemployment rate rose to 2.7% in January, above consensus forecasts. In China, the February official NBS Manufacturing and Services PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.0 and 49.7, respectively. The February RatingDog General Manufacturing and Services PMIs—which include smaller firms—came in at 52.1 and 56.7, respectively..

The Week Ahead

The US and China release inflation numbers. The UK and eurozone report industrial production. The UK also announces manufacturing production figures. China releases trade, loan growth and money supply data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.