Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—May 11 - May 15

In the US, April headline consumer inflation accelerated 0.6% m/m and 3.8% y/y, while core consumer inflation (excluding food and energy) accelerated 0.4% m/m and 2.8 y/y. In our view, a bigger or longer spike in inflation looks unlikely given today’s moderate money supply growth and regional conflicts’ often fleeting impact on energy prices. Looking ahead, we believe inflation reality likely turns out better than widely perceived—an opportunity for positive bullish surprise. For more, please see our 5/12/2026 commentary, “Price Pain, but No Sticker ‘Shock’ to Stocks.” April retail sales grew 0.5% m/m and 4.9% y/y. April industrial production increased 0.7% m/m and 1.4% y/y, while manufacturing production grew 0.6% m/m and 1.3% y/y.

In the UK, the first estimate of Q1 2026 GDP growth was 0.6% q/q and 1.1% y/y, both above forecasts. March GDP expanded 0.3% m/m and 1.2% y/y. March industrial production decreased 0.2% m/m and was flat y/y, while manufacturing production grew 1.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y. In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP growth was 0.1% q/q and 0.8% y/y, both in line with the previous estimates. March industrial production increased 0.2% m/m and decreased 2.1% y/y.

In Japan, April bank loans increased 5.4% y/y. In China, April consumer inflation accelerated 0.3% m/m and 1.2% y/y. April loan growth increased 5.6% y/y. April money supply (M2) increased 8.6% y/y, higher than forecasts.

The Week Ahead
The US, UK, eurozone and Japan release preliminary May Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs). The UK, eurozone and Japan report April consumer inflation. The UK and China announce April retail sales, while Japan releases March retail sales. Japan reports its first estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and March industrial production.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.