Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets — October 19 - October 23

In the US, the October flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 56.0 and 57.9, respectively. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

In the UK, September consumer inflation slowed to 0.4% m/m and accelerated to 3.5% y/y, both above estimates. September core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) slowed to 0.2% m/m and accelerated to 2.8% y/y. The October flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 52.8 and 53.1, respectively, both higher than expected. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.7% in August, below consensus forecasts. September retail sales fell 0.4% m/m and grew 0.8% y/y, lower than consensus estimates. In the eurozone, the October flash S&P Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 52.4 and 51.7 respectively, both lower than expected.

In Japan, September consumer inflation was flat m/m but accelerated to 2.1% y/y. September core-core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) accelerated to 2.4% y/y. The October flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 53.3 and 52.0, respectively. September imports and exports rose 18.9% y/y and 16.7% y/y, respectively, both below consensus forecasts. In China, Q3 2026 GDP growth expanded 1.2% q/q and 4.5% y/y. September retail sales grew 0.4% m/m and 1.1% y/y.

The Week Ahead:

The US and eurozone release their first estimates of Q3 2026 GDP. The US reports September durable goods orders and new homes sales. The UK and eurozone report September money supply. The eurozone and Japan release September unemployment. Japan announces September retail sales, industrial production and trade data. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meet to set their respective monetary policies. China releases October PMIs.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.