Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—October 27 - October 31

The US government shutdown continued last week. As a result, US economic data were light, with most official reporting delayed due to the shutdown. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its fed-funds rate target range 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75% – 4.00%. While many pundits discuss Fed moves as if they are all-important, we always caution against overrating monetary policy’s influence—it is only one (of many) variables markets care about. Fed rate cuts are fine, but they are not make-or-break for stocks. For more, please see our 10/29/2025 commentary, “The Fed Cuts Again. But Can It See Through the Data Fog?”

In the UK, September money supply (M4) increased 0.6% m/m, higher than expected. In the eurozone, the first estimate of Q3 2025 GDP expanded 0.2% q/q and 1.3% y/y, above consensus forecasts. September money supply (M3) increased 2.8% y/y, in line with expectations. October consumer inflation increased 2.1% y/y, in line with forecasts. October core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) increased 2.4% y/y. The unemployment rate remained at 6.3% in September.

In Japan, September industrial production increased 2.2% m/m and 3.4% y/y, surpassing forecasts. September retails sales grew 0.3% m/m, in line with estimates, and 0.5% y/y, lower than estimates. September imports and exports rose 3.3% y/y and rose 4.2% y/y, respectively. The unemployment rate remained at 2.6% in September. In China, the October NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs)—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.0 and 50.1, respectively, both lower than expected. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The Week Ahead
The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China release October PMIs. The US releases September durable goods orders, October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment. The eurozone releases September retail sales. China releases October trading data and consumer inflation. The Bank of England announces the official interest rate decision.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.