Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—September 29 - October 3

In the US, the final September S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 52.0 and 54.2, respectively. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. On Wednesday, the US federal government entered a partial shutdown. While government shutdowns make big headlines, they historically have minimal impact on markets or the economy. For more commentary, please see our 10/01/2025 article, “Government Shutdown: Stocks Don’t Sweat the Squabbling.”

In the UK, the second estimate of Q2 2025 GDP growth was 0.3% q/q, in line with the previous estimate, and 1.4% y/y, revised up from the previous estimate of 1.2% y/y. The final September S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 46.2 and 50.8, respectively. August money supply (M4) increased 0.4% m/m, higher than forecasts. In the eurozone, preliminary September consumer inflation accelerated to 2.2% y/y while core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) remained unchanged at 2.3% y/y. The final September HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.8 and 51.3, respectively. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3% in August from 6.2% in July, above consensus forecasts.

In Japan, the final September Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 48.5 and 53.3, respectively. August preliminary industrial production declined 1.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y. August preliminary retail sales fell 8.1% y/y, lower than consensus estimates. The unemployment rate increased to 2.6% in August, above forecasts. In China, the September NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs)—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 49.8 and 50.0, respectively. The September RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMIs—which include smaller businesses—were 51.2 and 52.9, respectively, both higher than expected.

The Week Ahead:

The US reports August trade data. The eurozone posts August retail sales. China releases September money supply and loan growth, while Japan reports September bank lending.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.