Economics

Consistently Too Low

Already third quarter earnings are coming in well ahead of expectations.

Already third quarter earnings are coming in well ahead of expectations. This is nothing new—analysts have been consistently too low in their predictions for years. The trend is your friend…anticipate outperforming earnings again this quarter.
• In a typical quarter (since 1994), 60% of companies beat the estimates, 20% match and 20% miss.
• In the aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4.4% above the estimates, which is above the long term historical average of 3.2%.
• So far this year, the percentage of companies beating earnings is well above average, testing the 70% level!

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