A Midsummer Check-In on Global Stocks

In and out of the US, our research shows this bull market—prolonged period of overall rising stocks—is bigger than Big Tech. No doubt, as many commentators we follow note, Tech is riding high on the AI wave. But it isn’t the sole driver. Less noticed, we find, under the surface: The rest of the market, globally, is faring fine, too—and in some cases exceeding Tech’s gains. Let us take a tour of global markets to illustrate this very point as Q3 reaches the halfway mark.

First up, look within the US, the world’s AI hotbed. The S&P 500 Energy sector—up 39.7% year to date in pounds—far exceeds Tech’s 23.1%.^[i] Tech may be the runner up, but Industrials’ 19.6% year-to-date gain and Materials’ 13.6% also exceed the S&P 500’s 12.9%.^[ii] Meanwhile, the worst performing sectors year to date are Tech-adjacent: Consumer Discretionary (-1.0%) and Communication Services (-0.7%).[iii]

Another way to picture the bull market’s broad-based strength: The equal-weighted S&P 500’s 15.1% year-to-date return is outperforming the regular, capitalisation-weighted benchmark—which headlines we read decry as top heavy.^[iv] Whilst the S&P 500’s top-10 constituents—all Tech or Tech-like (save one big bank)—make up a hefty 37.5% of the index’s market value and have collectively done well this year, the average S&P 500 company is doing better.^[v]

Then too, small-cap stocks are beating large. The Russell 2000, a small-cap index, is up 23.1% year to date, beating the Nasdaq 100—the epitome of Big Tech—which is up 18.4%.^[vi]

Next, look outside America. This banger bull market is fully global. The MSCI World Ex. USA Index’s 13.9% year-to-date rise edges out the S&P 500’s 12.9%.^[vii] Even the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is outrunning America with its 22.4% year-to-date ascent.^[viii]

All told, 12 of 22 non-US developed markets are beating the S&P 500. In alphabetical order they are: Australia (13.7% year to date), Austria (26.5%), Belgium (13.3%), Canada (15.0%), Italy (17.3%), Japan (21.9%), the Netherlands (37.2%), New Zealand (14.5%), Norway (28.6%), Portugal (16.8%), Singapore (25.8%) and Spain (16.4%).^[ix]

Sectors within the MSCI World Ex. USA Index are also outperforming. Besides non-US Tech—yes, there is some Tech outside America—which rose 36.6% year to date (outperforming US Tech), Energy (31.9%), Materials (15.3%), Industrials (14.8%) and Financials (20.1%) also outclassed the American benchmark.^[x] We think this is a reminder to look globally when hunting investment opportunities.

What is driving such widespread gains globally? A proverbial wall of worry, like every bull market, based on our research. Energy and Norway leading global stocks may not shock—although we think that is mostly old news. Oil prices’ jump earlier this year juiced profits, according to company filings, which we think sent shares skyward. That said, with the apex of oil prices likely behind us, according to our analysis, we think the outlook is less rosy for Energy stocks looking forward. The Netherlands’ topping the developed markets leaderboard isn’t too surprising to us, either. It is a narrow market and home to a global semiconductor equipment juggernaut—amidst a worldwide chip shortage.^[xi]

But elsewhere? We think markets are rising as fears prove false. For example, headlines we follow warn continually of trouble erupting from the highest 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields in three decades—and record-high 30-year JGB rates.^[xii] But as Exhibit 1 shows, that hasn’t stopped Japanese stocks, nor has the generationally weak yen.^[xiii] Meanwhile, global stocks in general are rising (as we described) through a developed market rate ruckus, too.^[xiv]

Exhibit 1: Record High Japanese Stocks Despite Rising Rates

Source: FactSet, as of 17/8/2026.

Or take Canada, which many we follow warn faces 50% American tariffs amongst other (false, in our view) scares, like Alberta separatism. Yet Exhibit 2 shows its exports in US dollars approaching record levels—similar to Norway’s—revealing reality better than appreciated as well.^[xv] We think that helps underscore Canadian stocks’ outperformance.

Exhibit 2: Record High Canadian Exports Despite Tariffs

Source: FactSet, as of 17/8/2026.

In Australia, many commentators we see warn of market consequences from tightening monetary policy tied to three rate hikes there this year.^[xvi] Yet the country’s huge Materials sector and its smaller Energy sector are powering gains.^[xvii] But even here, consumer-related stocks are up nicely and Financials are up 10.9%.^[xviii] Rate hikes for the wrong reasons aren’t positive to us, but we also don’t think they carry the bite many financial publications we read presume—as we think Australian stocks’ ascent proves otherwise.

So far this year then, we see a bull market stronger and broader than many appreciate. Whilst we see sentiment warming—especially in America—enough worries seemingly linger globally to leave bricks in the wall for this bull market to keep running.