Personal Wealth Management / Market Analysis

A Midsummer Check-In on Global Stocks

What we see halfway through Q3.

By Fisher Investments UK — 18/08/2026 icons/24/time@3x Time to read:

In and out of the US, our research shows this bull market—prolonged period of overall rising stocks—is bigger than Big Tech. No doubt, as many commentators we follow note, Tech is riding high on the AI wave. But it isn’t the sole driver. Less noticed, we find, under the surface: The rest of the market, globally, is faring fine, too—and in some cases exceeding Tech’s gains. Let us take a tour of global markets to illustrate this very point as Q3 reaches the halfway mark.

First up, look within the US, the world’s AI hotbed. The S&P 500 Energy sector—up 39.7% year to date in pounds—far exceeds Tech’s 23.1%.[i] Tech may be the runner up, but Industrials’ 19.6% year-to-date gain and Materials’ 13.6% also exceed the S&P 500’s 12.9%.[ii] Meanwhile, the worst performing sectors year to date are Tech-adjacent: Consumer Discretionary (-1.0%) and Communication Services (-0.7%).[iii]

Another way to picture the bull market’s broad-based strength: The equal-weighted S&P 500’s 15.1% year-to-date return is outperforming the regular, capitalisation-weighted benchmark—which headlines we read decry as top heavy.[iv] Whilst the S&P 500’s top-10 constituents—all Tech or Tech-like (save one big bank)—make up a hefty 37.5% of the index’s market value and have collectively done well this year, the average S&P 500 company is doing better.[v]

Then too, small-cap stocks are beating large. The Russell 2000, a small-cap index, is up 23.1% year to date, beating the Nasdaq 100—the epitome of Big Tech—which is up 18.4%.[vi]

Next, look outside America. This banger bull market is fully global. The MSCI World Ex. USA Index’s 13.9% year-to-date rise edges out the S&P 500’s 12.9%.[vii] Even the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is outrunning America with its 22.4% year-to-date ascent.[viii]

All told, 13 of 22 non-US developed markets are beating the S&P 500. In alphabetical order they are: Australia (13.7% year to date), Austria (26.5%), Belgium (13.3%), Canada (15.0%), Finland (13.6%), Italy (17.3%), Japan (21.9%), the Netherlands (37.2%), New Zealand (14.5%), Norway (28.6%), Portugal (16.8%), Singapore (25.8%) and Spain (16.4%).[ix]

Sectors within the MSCI World Ex. USA Index are also outperforming. Besides non-US Tech—yes, there is some Tech outside America—which rose 36.6% year to date (outperforming US Tech), Energy (31.9%), Materials (15.3%), Industrials (14.8%) and Financials (20.1%) also outclassed the American benchmark.[x] We think this is a reminder to look globally when hunting investment opportunities.

What is driving such widespread gains globally? A proverbial wall of worry, like every bull market, based on our research. Energy and Norway leading global stocks may not shock—although we think that is mostly old news. Oil prices’ jump earlier this year juiced profits, according to company filings, which we think sent shares skyward. That said, with the apex of oil prices likely behind us, according to our analysis, we think the outlook is less rosy for Energy stocks looking forward. The Netherlands’ topping the developed markets leaderboard isn’t too surprising to us, either. It is a narrow market and home to a global semiconductor equipment juggernaut—amidst a worldwide chip shortage.[xi]

But elsewhere? We think markets are rising as fears prove false. For example, headlines we follow warn continually of trouble erupting from the highest 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields in three decades—and record-high 30-year JGB rates.[xii] But as Exhibit 1 shows, that hasn’t stopped Japanese stocks, nor has the generationally weak yen.[xiii] Meanwhile, global stocks in general are rising (as we described) through a developed market rate ruckus, too.[xiv]

Exhibit 1: Record High Japanese Stocks Despite Rising Rates
Dual-axis line chart with a solid dark blue line representing the MSCI Japan Index level (left-hand axis) and a solid burgundy line representing the 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield in percent (right-hand axis) from January 2026 to August 2026. • Left Y-axis: MSCI Japan Index Level Rebased to 100 on December 31, 2025, ranging from 100 to 130. • Right Y-axis: 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield in Percent, ranging from 3.0% to 4.2%. • X-axis: Dates from January 2026 through August 2026. • Lines: o Dark blue solid line: MSCI Japan (left-hand scale). o Burgundy solid line: 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield (right-hand scale). • MSCI Japan (dark blue line): o Begins at 100 in January 2026. o Rises to approximately 108 in mid-January, then fluctuates between roughly 104 and 108 through early February. o Advances to approximately 115 to 116 in mid-February and fluctuates around those levels before declining. o Falls to a low near 102 in late March 2026. o Recovers through April and May, moving above 110 and reaching approximately 118 by early June. o After a short dip, it continues higher to approximately 123 by late June. From there, it dips to 112 with several fluctuations by late July. o It then recovers to end near 122 to 123 in August 2026. • 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield (burgundy line): o Begins near 3.4% in January 2026. o Rises to approximately 3.7% in late January before declining. o Falls to approximately 3.3% in late February. o Moves gradually higher through March and April, fluctuating between approximately 3.5% and 3.7%. o In May 2026, rises sharply above 4.0%, reaching a peak near 4.1%, the highest yield shown. o Declines during June to approximately 3.7% to 3.8%. o Moves higher again during July, fluctuating around 4.0% in late July. o Dips to around 3.9% in early August, then rises near 4.1% in mid-August 2026. • Both series generally trend upward over the period. The MSCI Japan Index rises from 100 in January 2026 to approximately 122 to 123 in August 2026, while the 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield increases from approximately 3.4% to 4.1%, with both encountering volatility up and down along the way.
Source: FactSet, as of 17/8/2026. Please see our Annex below for an extended, five-year version of this chart.

Or take Canada, which many we follow warn faces 50% American tariffs amongst other (false, in our view) scares, like Alberta separatism. Yet Exhibit 2 shows its exports in US dollars approaching record levels—similar to Norway’s—revealing reality better than appreciated as well.[xv] We think that helps underscore Canadian stocks’ outperformance.

Exhibit 2: Record High Canadian Exports Despite Tariffs
Line chart with two solid lines showing Canadian exports measured in United States dollars and Canadian dollars from January 2016 to June 2026. • Y-axis: Billion Dollars, ranging from 10 billion dollars to 90 billion dollars. • X-axis: Dates from 2016 through 2026. • Lines: o Dark blue solid line: Canadian Exports (United States dollars). o Burgundy solid line: Canadian Exports (Canadian dollars). • Canadian Exports (United States dollars) (dark blue line): o Begin near 30 billion dollars in 2016. o Rise gradually with fluctuations through 2017 and 2018, reaching approximately 39 billion to 40 billion dollars. o Fluctuate mostly between 34 billion and 40 billion dollars throughout 2019. o Decline sharply in early 2020, reaching a low near 23 billion dollars, the lowest value shown for this series. o Recover during late 2020 and 2021, rising above 40 billion dollars. o Increase further and peak near 57 billion dollars in early 2022. o Fluctuate mostly between 44 billion and 52 billion dollars from 2022 through 2025. o Rise in 2026 and end near 56 billion dollars. • Canadian Exports (Canadian dollars) (burgundy line): o Begin near 43 billion dollars in 2016. o Rise gradually and fluctuate mostly between 43 billion and 52 billion dollars from 2017 through 2019. o Decline sharply in early 2020, falling to approximately 32 billion dollars. o Recover rapidly during late 2020 and 2021, moving above 50 billion dollars. o Increase sharply in early 2022, reaching approximately 73 billion dollars. o Fluctuate mostly between 58 billion and 69 billion dollars from 2022 through 2025. o Rise during 2026 and end near 79 billion dollars, the highest value shown on the chart. • Both series experience a pronounced decline during early 2020, followed by a recovery and generally higher levels thereafter. • Throughout the entire period, the burgundy Canadian-dollar series remains above the dark blue United States-dollar series. • By June 2026, Canadian exports are approximately 79 billion dollars in Canadian dollars and 56 billion dollars in United States dollars.
Source: FactSet, as of 17/8/2026.

In Australia, many commentators we see warn of market consequences from tightening monetary policy tied to three rate hikes there this year.[xvi] Yet the country’s huge Materials sector and its smaller Energy sector are powering gains.[xvii] But even here, consumer-related stocks are up nicely and Financials are up 10.9%.[xviii] Rate hikes for the wrong reasons aren’t positive to us, but we also don’t think they carry the bite many financial publications we read presume—as we think Australian stocks’ ascent proves otherwise.

So far this year then, we see a bull market stronger and broader than many appreciate. Whilst we see sentiment warming—especially in America—enough worries seemingly linger globally to leave bricks in the wall for this bull market to keep running.

Annex: Japanese Stocks and Long Rates, August 2021 – August 2026
Dual-axis line chart with a solid dark blue line representing the MSCI Japan Index level (left-hand axis) and a solid burgundy line representing the 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield (right-hand axis) from August 2021 to August 2026. • Left Y-axis: MSCI Japan Index Level Rebased to 100 on 17 August 2021, ranging from 80 to 180. • Right Y-axis: 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yields in percent, ranging from 0.0% to 5.0%. • X-axis: Dates from August 2021 through August 2026. • Lines: o Dark blue solid line: MSCI Japan Index (left-hand scale. o Burgundy solid line: 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield (right-hand scale). • MSCI Japan (dark blue line): o Begins near 100 in August 2021. o Declines through 2022, fluctuating mostly between 90 and 105, with lows near 90 during mid-2022. o Recovers gradually during 2023, moving back above 100 and ending the year near 110. o Continues higher through 2024, generally fluctuating between 110 and 122. o Experiences several short-lived declines during 2024 and early 2025, including brief drops near 102 to 103. o Advances sharply during 2025, rising above 130 by late summer and above 140 by late 2025. o Continues climbing through 2026, reaching several peaks near 170, the highest level shown on the chart. o Ends near 168 to 170 in August 2026. • 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield (burgundy line): o Begins near 0.7% in August 2021. o Trends upward through 2022, reaching approximately 1.5% to 1.7%. o Fluctuates around 1.4% to 1.8% during 2023. o Continues rising during 2024, moving above 2.0% and reaching approximately 2.3% by late 2024. o Increases further throughout 2025, rising from approximately 2.5% to above 3.0%. o Continues higher during 2026, fluctuating mostly between 3.5% and 4.1%. o Ends near 4.1% in mid-August 2026. • Both series show an overall upward trend across the period. The MSCI Japan Index rises from approximately 100 to nearly 170, while the 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield increases from approximately 0.6% to 4.1%.
Source: FactSet, as of 17/8/2026.


[i] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. S&P 500 Energy and Information Technology sector returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[ii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sector returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[iii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. S&P 500 Discretionary and Communication services sector returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026. Market capitalisation—or cap—is a measure of a company’s size calculated by multiplying its share price and number of shares outstanding. A company’s market-cap weighting in an index is proportionate to this size, whereas an equal-weighted index gives each constituent the same proportion.

[iv] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index return with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[v] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. S&P 500 top-10 constituents by market capitalisation, 17/8/2026.

[vi] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[vii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. MSCI World ex. USA Index return with net dividends and S&P 500 return with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[viii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. MSCI Emerging Markets Index return with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[ix] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on MSCI World ex. USA Index constituent country returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[x] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on MSCI World ex. USA Index sector returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[xi] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on MSCI Netherlands constituents by market capitalisation, 17/8/2026. “A.I.-Driven Chip Crunch Leads to New Rush of Lobbying in Washington,” Kalley Huang and Ana Swanson, The New York Times, 10/8/2026. Accessed via Democracy Centre for Transparency.

[xii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on 10-year JGB yields, 3/2/1986 – 17/8/2026, and 30-year JGB yields, 2/9/1999 – 17/8/2026.

[xiii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on yen per pound, 31/12/2007 – 17/8/2026.

[xiv] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on 10-year government bond rates of the US, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Japan, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[xv] Note: Canada’s exports hit record highs in Canadian dollars in June, whilst Norway’s (in krone and USD) are at pre-pandemic highs—and have yet to exceed 2022’s peak fuelled by European gas shortages in the wake of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. “US and Canada Hold Last-Minute Talks to Stop Trump’s 50% Tariffs,” Paul Wiseman and Rob Gillies, Associated Press, 18/8/2026.

[xvi] Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, as of 18/8/2026.

[xvii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. Statement based on MSCI Australia Materials and Energy sector returns with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

[xviii] Source: FactSet, as of 18/8/2026. MSCI Australia Financials sector return with net dividends in GBP, 31/12/2025 – 17/8/2026.

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