Sell America Fears Don’t Square With Data

Editors’ Note: MarketMinder Europe is politically agnostic. We prefer no politician nor any party and assess developments for their economic and market implications only.

Are investors ditching US assets in droves? Some commentators we follow have argued as such, touting the so-called “Sell America” narrative.^[i] Supposedly, investors—especially outside America—are losing favour for US-based assets, a sea change that allegedly risks upending financial markets globally as the US and its dollar stumble. But hold on. We think the data tell a different story, suggesting demand for US stocks and bonds remains fine. Whilst we think US stocks are likely to lag non-US markets in 2026, Sell America talk carries things too far—and amounts to another brick in stocks’ proverbial wall of worry.

Sell America appeared in publications we follow throughout much of 2025, but it perked up most late last year and into early 2026. Based on our observations, it derived from chatter around US President Donald Trump’s administration potentially igniting a trade war with tariffs, weaponising the US dollar and threatening the US Federal Reserve’s political independence—though we also saw some cite America’s recent enquiry into purchasing Greenland and other warnings about the shifting international order. Proponents implied these factors add fresh risks to US assets, so investors—both at home and abroad—are selling and diversifying away.^[ii]

Much of the chatter we have seen hinges on the US dollar, which fell -9.4% versus a basket of major currencies in 2025 and is currently down -0.6% year to date.[iii] Commentators we follow suggest this, plus gold’s rise and reports of Sell America chatter at investor conferences, proves investors are ditching America.^[iv] We think that talk far exceeds reality, so let us walk through some data.

Take US bond markets. One way we find useful to gauge demand for US Treasurys (or any government’s debt) is the bid-to-cover ratio at auction, or the dollar value of bids to the face value of debt sold. At last week’s auction, 10-year Treasurys fetched a bid-to-cover of 2.39.^[v] Whilst this is down slightly from November and December’s sales, it is just off the 6-month moving average of 2.53 and 2.54 average over the past 10 years.^[vi] If Treasury demand were really sinking, we think last week’s bid-to-cover would likely be much, much lower. To us, a tick below average doesn’t seem to indicate much flight.

Also illustrating this, in our view: Treasury yields. They can hint at demand. Yields move opposite prices, so if investors were fleeing Treasurys, the price would likely fall from their eagerness to exit—sending yields upward. They aren’t. 10-year yields are down from a year ago by 36 basis points (0.36 percentage point), landing them below most of 2025’s levels—even those immediately following Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement, which we find was a major catalyst for Sell America talk.^[vii]

Meanwhile, 5- and 7-year yields are down by a similar amount over the past year.^[viii] Longer-term 30-year Treasury yields are basically flat, up just 3 basis points.^[ix] Whilst all are up from pandemic lows and those seen in the low-rate 2010s, they aren’t high by historical standards.^[x] In our view, there isn’t much evidence investors are rushing to offload US government debt.

Or look internationally by reviewing credit spreads—the difference in yield between two issuers at comparable maturities. US 10-year credit spreads versus Australia, Germany and France have fallen somewhat—US yields are down versus those nations’.^[xi] Credit spreads versus Canada are little changed.^[xii] US yields have climbed against only Gilts.^[xiii] Is that Sell America? Seems like a stretch to us, as well as a counterpoint to persistent warnings that UK fiscal policy imperils Gilt markets. Were that so, Gilt yields would likely be spiking relative to their US counterparts, not falling.

We also used a similar analysis on corporate debt to see if investors are broadly selling US companies’ bonds. Yet this spread is also quite low by historical standards. Since 2026’s start, the spread has widened … by 3 basis points—nothing near a spike.^[xiv]

We don’t think stocks are pointing to a US fire sale, either. Start with the US-orientated S&P 500, which is roughly flat in dollars year to date and slightly positive since commentators we follow brought Sell America into the zeitgeist last November.^[xv] According to our research, flat to slightly positive returns don’t signal a major selloff. And whilst US stocks lagged non-US last year, they still rose 17.9% in dollars.^[xvi] Again, that doesn’t look like a vast Sell America push to us. According to Investment Company Institute data, investors were net sellers of US domestic equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last year, liquidating a net £251.9 billion in fund holdings.^[xvii] Is that Sell America? Well, through 13 February (the latest data available), investors are net buyers this year—as the narrative heated up!^[xviii]

As for the broad negativity we have seen around the US dollar’s fall? Our research suggests it lacks context. Whilst the dollar is down against other major currencies recently, it is still right around its 40-year arithmetic average and parallels movement from Trump’s first term.^[xix] As evidence, we don’t find this compelling.

After digging into the data, we think Sell America looks a lot less real and a lot more like an overblown, perhaps politicised, narrative. We just don’t see much evidence across an array of assets people are broadly fleeing American investments.