The Truth About the Santa Claus Rally

Transcript

Ken Fisher:

"Do you believe in Santa Claus Rally?" First time I heard that this year, I thought, did you say, "Do you believe in Santa Claus really?" I'm getting a little old for that, you know. I don't know why you think I would. When I was a boy, of course, you know, I believe in Santa Claus hugely as a little boy. And I think that's good. It's a nice thing. But the reality is, Santa Claus Rally fits into a subset category of a large number of seasonal myths and other calendar associated myths that just don't hold up if you do the stats on them. If you analyze correctly, they all fade away. This would include the Christmas oriented Santa Claus Rally, The Summer Rally, the January Indicator aka As Goes January, So Goes the Year. September and October are the worst months of the year. Sell in May, Go away. Come Back in the Fall. The Fall Will See a Fall. Even on down to other ones that people have that are so so-called about short term-timing, which again, don't actually help you making money. They're all statistically wrong if statistically analyzed correctly the way a statistician would. And while there's enough that you can find to to pass them in ways that will make some people want to believe in them, they're just all not really something you can rely on for anything because they are statistically false. So, the Santa Claus Rally is just one of a subset of much bigger things that I'm telling you. Santa Claus Rally, As Goes January, So Goes the Year, Sell in May, Go Away. All these things. You know, if you were to believe all that stuff, you would believe you would make money by from January. Knowing what to do. Basically with the year in May, going on vacation and coming back sometime in October. If you invested in October through the end of the year, then you'd be making money consistently and particularly so when Santa Claus would come to you for Christmas. If things were that easy, do you realize that the market, which pre-prices all widely known information, would have priced them away. You follow that. They mostly come from a few extreme examples that tilt averages. And those few extreme examples, of course, are just happenstance. I hope you found this educational. I've written a lot about this topic in a series of my books, including The Only Three Questions that Count. In my book, Debunkery that I often profile. But all of this stuff is statistical nonsense. Thank you, thank you. Take care. Hope to have you listen to some of my videos another time. I hope you found this one useful. Hi, this is Ken Fisher. Subscribe to the Fisher Investments YouTube channel if you like what you've seen. Click the bell to be notified as soon as we publish new videos.