Will the Congressional Reconciliation Process Bypass Political Gridlock? Ken Fisher Answers

Transcript

0:02
so
0:03
a lot of my firm's
0:07
more conservative clients have been very
0:10
concerned
0:12
this year by the congressional use of
0:15
reconciliation
0:17
as a process to
0:20
put things through the senate that
0:23
otherwise would require 60 votes
0:26
and there's this fear that
0:30
i hear pretty often about will the use
0:33
of reconciliation
0:34
be broad big
0:37
and bad well let me just
0:41
stop you if you're not of that
0:43
conservative perspective
0:44
you probably believe that the use of
0:47
reconciliation
0:48
that the conservative might think is big
0:50
bad and
0:53
broad up would actually be great
0:57
a goal and generous
1:00
but let's step back from all that
1:03
because that's all
1:04
partisan politics and i don't really do
1:06
partisan politics
1:08
i do markets and i stick to markets and
1:12
when we think about this the process is
1:15
fairly rigid
1:17
using reconciliation only applies to
1:19
certain kind of things
1:21
uh it doesn't allow for an
1:24
awful lot of what would be the agenda
1:27
that many people would hope for and
1:31
other people would fear
1:34
the fact is as we saw in the 1.9
1:38
trillion dollar
1:39
spending bill they couldn't throw in
1:42
an increase in minimum wage but doesn't
1:44
qualify for reconciliation on an awful
1:46
lot of the things that relate to
1:48
regulatory changes of law otherwise you
1:50
can't throw into a reconciliation bill
1:53
they will get knocked out they will not
1:55
be honored
1:56
and as we move forward from here
2:00
what i believe as i've said in other
2:02
places and recently
2:03
is that the margins in congress
2:07
are so thin that getting
2:10
reconciliation through even which allows
2:13
for
2:13
passage instead of at 60 in the senate
2:15
at 50
2:17
is hairlessly tough to do
2:20
moving forward will there be some of
2:22
that yes i'm sure there will
2:23
but what it will require is enough
2:26
agreement
2:27
that the democrats in the senate
2:31
who otherwise are thought of as those
2:34
further
2:35
to the democratic right or in
2:39
seats that might be more imperil
2:42
potentially in 2022
2:45
that they have to be prepared to sign on
2:48
because they've got to be able to get to
2:50
they've got to
2:50
keep every single one of those to put a
2:52
reconciliation bill through at 50
2:54
or convert a couple of republicans
2:57
which isn't easy to do since things are
2:59
so long or jammed ideologically and
3:01
there's so much bitterness on both sides
3:03
going both ways which is
3:04
actually pretty unfortunate but be that
3:08
as it may that
3:09
both sides are so hostile to each other
3:13
that this is a very tight needle
3:16
to put a thread through and therefore
3:19
will there be some of it yeah there'll
3:20
be some
3:20
will there be a lot of it i don't think
3:22
there will and then
3:23
i'll make the point that because that
3:26
thread has to go through that very tiny
3:28
needle
3:29
in that process of trying to make that
3:32
work
3:33
it takes longer and as it takes longer
3:36
there's more time for markets to
3:39
pre-price potential outcomes
3:41
digest it and move on long before the
3:44
legislation happens which i believe is
3:46
happening as we speak and therefore
3:48
these features aren't as big or as bad
3:51
as some people fear other people hope
3:54
and you will see that as this year
3:57
progresses
3:58
as we move through what's basically the
4:02
infrastructure bill and can i be wrong
4:05
about this
4:06
sure because there can be unexpected
4:07
events that come up and
4:09
swing people over into a position they
4:11
wouldn't have otherwise had as we speak
4:13
today
4:14
but for the most part it's going to be
4:16
really tough
4:17
to get big bills through and as every
4:20
month goes by that's going to get
4:21
tougher
4:22
so thank you for listening to this but
4:24
no i don't really believe
4:26
that there's a runaway issue of benefit
4:30
or risk from the reconciliation process
4:34
in the senate thank you very much
4:37
subscribe to the fisher investment
4:39
youtube channel if you like what you've
4:41
seen
4:41
click the bell to be notified as soon as
4:43
we publish new videos
5:04
you