Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets — August 10 - August 14

In the US, July consumer inflation rose to 0.1% m/m but slowed to 3.4% y/y, both in line with estimates. July core consumer inflation (excluding food and energy) increased to 0.2% m/m but decelerated to 2.5% y/y, also matching expectations. Meanwhile, July retail sales declined 0.6% m/m but increased 5% y/y. Despite concerns inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates later this year, we believe various indicators suggest a better inflation reality than many might think, such as core goods prices mostly staying flat all year and market-based inflation expectations such as TIPS yields also remaining tame. For more, please see our 08/12/2026 commentary, "On Inflation, Look Past Today’s Headlines."

In the UK, June GDP expanded 0.3% m/m and 1.1% y/y, exceeding consensus estimates. The first estimate of Q2 2026 GDP growth was 0.4% q/q and 1.2% y/y. However, June industrial production fell 0.2% m/m and 0.2% y/y, both below forecasts. Manufacturing production declined 0.5% m/m while rising 0.5% y/y. In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q2 2026 GDP growth was unchanged at 0.4% q/q. June industrial production was flat m/m and grew 0.1% y/y, both surpassing forecasts.

In Japan, July bank loans increased 5.4% y/y, below expectations. In China, July loan growth rose 5.1% y/y, also below expectations, while money supply (M2) increased 7.7% y/y, falling short of forecasts. 

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan release August Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI). The eurozone, Japan and UK report July consumer prices, while the US, China and Japan announce industrial production figures. The UK, Japan and China report retail sales, and Japan and the US release July trade data. The US also releases July manufacturing data, while Japan announces Q2 2026 GDP.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.