Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—March 30 - April 3

In the US, the final March S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 52.3 and 49.8, respectively, both lower than expected. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. March nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% in March, below forecasts. February retail sales grew 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, higher than consensus estimates.

In the UK, the second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP growth was 0.1% q/q and 1.0% y/y, in line with the previous estimates. The final March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.0, lower than expected. February money supply (M4) expanded 0.6% m/m, higher than forecasts. In the eurozone, preliminary March consumer inflation accelerated to 2.5% y/y. Preliminary March core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) decelerated to 2.3% y/y. The final March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.6, above expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% in February, slightly above consensus forecasts.

In Japan, the final March S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 51.6 and 53.4, respectively, both higher than expected. February preliminary industrial production decreased 2.1% m/m but rose 0.3% y/y. The unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in February, slightly below consensus forecasts. February retail sales declined 2.0% m/m and 0.2% y/y. In China, the March NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 50.4 and 50.1, respectively, both higher than expected. The March RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMIs—which include smaller businesses—were 50.8 and 52.1 respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The US releases its third estimate of Q4 2025 GDP, February preliminary durable goods orders and March consumer inflation. The UK and eurozone report final March services PMIs. The eurozone releases February retail sales. China reports March money supply (M2) and loan growth.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.