Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Feb. 17-23, 2013

A host of central banks’ meeting minutes, the first indicators of February manufacturing, January trade balances and important decisions in Cyprus and Poland likely dominate the US holiday shortened week.

Sunday, 2/17:

Presidential elections in Cyprus

A successor to the extremely unpopular Dimitris Christofias will need to jump immediately into bailout talks with EU leaders. The island nation off Turkey’s southern coast needs a bailout (estimates currently suggest around €17 billion, but this number is likely to move once negotiations begin) to shore up its economy and recapitalize its banks, which have been crushed under the weight of toxic Greek debt holdings. Which should be telling—the troubles of a country that’s the economic satellite of Greece aren’t likely to carry lasting global economic ripples.

Presidential and legislative elections in Ecuador

Monday, 2/18:

Presidents’ Day in the United States

Most major US markets will be closed in honor of the holiday.

The Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia release their meeting minutes

Expect some close scrutiny into both central banks’ minutes given recent events in the countries—particularly in Japan given Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s attempts to sway the bank into greater easing recently.

Mexico Q4 GDP

Tuesday, 2/19:

Germany February ZEW survey

The monthly survey of 350 financial experts is supposed to detail a breakdown of analysts optimistic about economic development in Germany over the next six months versus those who are pessimistic.

US February housing market index

New Zealand Q4 PPI

Japan December All Industry Index

Brazil December retail sales

Poland’s parliament debates adopting the euro

An EU member since 2004, the country will focus its attention the next few weeks on ratifying the European Fiscal Compact and a possible constitutional amendment to replace the zloty with the euro. Liberal-conservative Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform party are the leading proponents for the change, arguing a switch to the euro would increase economic competitiveness with the rest of Europe. However, right-wing nationalist opposition party leader Jaroslaw Kaczyski and his Law and Justice party strongly oppose a change, arguing ratifying the fiscal pact and adopting the euro would give Brussels too much say in domestic fiscal and budgetary issues.

Wednesday, 2/20:

Germany Final January CPI and PPI

France February business climate indicator and January CPI

UK BoE MPC minutes and January labor market report

US FOMC Minutes and January PPI

Japan January trade balance

China February Markit Flash PMI manufacturing index

Thursday, 2/21:

Switzerland January trade balance

Eurozone, Germany and France February Flash composite PMIs

US February Flash PMI manufacturing Index, January CPI, January existing home sales and January Leading Economic Index

Friday, 2/22:

Italy final January CPI

Germany February lfo business sentiment survey

Italy February consumer confidence

Canada January CPI and December retail sales

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.