Market Analysis

The Week Ahead: Nov. 25 - Dec. 01, 2012

US economic data, a potential agreement on the next tranche of Greek aid and a regional election in Spain likely close out November.

Sunday, 11/25:

The autonomous Spanish region of Catalonia holds early elections, which could lead to a possible referendum on “self-determination”—implying a potential split from Spain

The Convergence and Union Party, led by regional President Artur Mas, is expected to take the majority of seats in Parliament. Pending that outcome, many expect a referendum on self-determination would likely pass. However, there are numerous obstacles to Catalonia’s actually seceding from Spain—including language in Spain’s constitution prohibiting secession and various EU rules requiring an independent Catalonia or any other seceded state re-apply for EU membership, etc. In our view, the most likely outcome is a renegotiation of Madrid’s regional tax policies that are central to Catalan frustration.

Monday, 11/26:

US Chicago Fed national activity and Dallas Fed regional manufacturing surveys

Eurozone finance ministers and the IMF meet to finalize Greece’s next bailout tranche

Reports suggest eurozone finance ministers and the IMF are close to an agreement on details of Greece’s next tranche of aid.

Tuesday, 11/27:

UK Q3 GDP

This revision is likely to be unchanged from initial reports of 4.1% annualized growth.

US October durable goods orders, September S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, November consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index

Wednesday, 11/28:

US MBA purchase applications

German November CPI

US October new home sales

Thursday, 11/29:

Swiss Q3 GDP

German October unemployment

Expectations are for Germany’s unemployment rate to remain at its initial estimate of 6.9%.

US Q3 GDP, November chain store sales, weekly jobless claims, Q3 corporate profits, October pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey

Based on a more complete set of data, the first revision of US Q3 GDP is expected to show a substantially higher reading than the originally reported 2.0% annualized rate.

October Japanese CPI, unemployment, industrial production and November PMI manufacturing

Friday, 11/30:

German October retail sales

Italian Q3 unemployment, November CPI and October PPI

Eurozone October unemployment and flash inflation (HICP)

US November personal income and outlays and the Chicago PMI manufacturing survey

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*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.