Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—February 9 - February 13

In the US, December retail sales were flat m/m, below expectations, but rose 2.4% y/y. January nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding the consensus forecast. The January unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, better than expected. January headline consumer inflation decelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December. Core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) slowed to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y in December.

In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP showed 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y growth, matching initial estimates. In the UK, December industrial production fell 0.9% m/m and rose 0.5% y/y, lower than forecasts. December manufacturing production decreased 0.5% m/m and increased 0.5% y/y, less than expected. The first estimate of Q4 2025 GDP showed 0.1% q/q and 1.0% y/y growth, both below forecasts.

In Japan, January bank lending increased 4.5% y/y. In China, January money supply (M2) increased 9.0% y/y, higher than forecasts. January loan growth decelerated to 6.1% y/y, below expectations.  

The Week Ahead:

The US and Japan release their first estimates of Q4 2025 GDP. The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report preliminary February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The UK posts January retail sales. Japan releases January consumer inflation and trade data. The eurozone and Japan release December industrial production, while the US reports January industrial and manufacturing production.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.