Reopening in Europe and Australia

With more and more economic data coming in, the sheer scope of the hit to the global economy from well-intended lockdowns is becoming clear. With it, so is the importance of reopening the economy—both to growth itself and markets. Four weeks ago, we outlined the earliest European nations’ reopening plans—from Denmark and Austria. But now, many other nations have joined them in beginning to reopen. For investors, we think a quick look at some major developed nations’ plans can help further form expectations about the economic contraction’s duration—and global stocks’ likely path forward.

The following is a roundup of major nations’ plans. Of course, their leaders have repeatedly warned these are subject to change (read: delay or reversal) if COVID-19 case counts resurge. These gradual plans—plus governments’ caveats—should help keep investors’ expectations of the path to reopening low. In our view, those low expectations are a plus for stocks, likely helping reduce negative surprise power.

Germany:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020. Individual states’ roadmaps may differ.

France:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020.

Italy:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020.

Spain:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020.

The Netherlands:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020.

Denmark:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020.

The UK:

Source: BBC and Reuters, as of 5/18/2020. Constituent countries’ roadmaps may differ.

Australia:

Source: Nine News Australia and The Guardian, as of 5/18/2020. Individual states’ roadmaps may differ.

Again, none of these timelines are set in stone. Additionally, easing restrictions of course don’t guarantee a return to normal. But markets will be attuned to how closely countries follow their reopening roadmaps this summer and beyond—and how those reopenings actually go. This should afford a good deal more visibility on how global economic conditions evolve as COVID-19 restrictions gradually ease not only in these nations, but in the US, too.