Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US LEI data, US, eurozone, UK, Japan and China PMI readings and Japanese inflation.
In the US, the April S&P Global Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose slightly to 59.7, exceeding expectations, while the April Flash Services PMI fell to 54.7, below expectations but still signaling growth. Readings over 50 indicate expansion. The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% m/m in March, slightly ahead of the consensus forecast. Seven out of ten components contributed positively, with the yield spread and initial jobless claims adding the most. While many pundits discuss the prospect of a looming US recession, forward-looking data such as LEI argue against that—suggesting reality has ample opportunity to surprise to the upside.
In the eurozone, the April S&P Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 55.3 and 57.7, respectively—both higher than anticipated. February industrial production expanded 2.0% y/y, beating estimates, and 0.7% m/m, in line with consensus forecasts. March core consumer prices (excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) rose 2.9% y/y, slightly lower than expectations. In the UK, the April Flash Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI was 55.3, above expectations while the April Flash Markit/CIPS Services PMI was 58.3, below consensus forecasts. Retail sales increased 0.9% y/y but declined 1.4% m/m, both below estimates.
In Japan, the April Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.4, while the April Jibun Bank Flash Services PMI rose to 50.5. Preliminary March imports and exports increased 31.2% y/y, above expectations and 14.7% y/y, below expectations, respectively. Final industrial productions numbers showed a 0.5% y/y and 2.0% m/m increase. March core-core consumer prices (excluding fresh food and energy) fell 0.7% y/y. China reported Q1 2022 GDP growth at 4.8% y/y, beating expectations. March retail sales fell 3.5% y/y, lower than forecasts, while March industrial production rose 5% y/y, above estimates.
The Week Ahead:
The US reports its first estimate of Q1 2022 GDP, March durable goods orders and March new home sales. The eurozone also releases its first Q1 2022 GDP estimate. Japan releases March unemployment, retail sales and industrial production figures. The Bank of Japan meets to set monetary policy. On Sunday, April 24, France holds the second round vote in a presidential election.