Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: As always, we recommend reviewing any dataset, official or niche, with the proper perspective and limitations in mind. Private sector reports often rely on smaller sample sizes and narrower economic segments compared to broader, national government data. That said, the latest figures from OpenBrand (which tracks daily prices from online marketplaces, retail websites and brick-and-mortar stores) showed prices for big-ticket goods and personal-care products rose 0.22% m/m in October, slowing from September’s 0.48% increase. Now, are home appliances, consumer electronics, vitamins and oral care products all that telling about inflation, which encompasses all goods and services prices across the broad economy? Nope. But this snapshot of select goods prices suggests some businesses continue to refrain from passing on possible tariff-related price hikes to consumers—consistent with what we have seen in recent purchasing managers’ indexes. That is some evidence arguing against tariff-driven inflation (which was always a flawed concept, since inflation is a monetary phenomenon and money supply growth remains tame).

MarketMinder’s View: Here is some textbook skeptical sentiment, indicating expectations remain low in Europe. Namely, in the wake of eurozone GDP growth’s accelerating to 0.9% annualized in Q3, this piece questions whether Europeans’ spending will be enough to sustain the expansion. With interest rates and prices still elevated versus years’ past, the article posits Europeans may opt to save rather than spend, extending a years-long trend and weighing on growth. But hold on. Household spending isn’t destiny for broader growth. Consider: Eurozone household spending slowed in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, yet headline GDP accelerated. The same happened in Q2 2023 and on several occasions prepandemic (per FactSet). This is because spending, while accounting for the largest chunk of GDP, isn’t the swing factor many assume. Most spending isn’t discretionary, but rather for necessary goods and services, so it doesn’t fluctuate much during the economic cycle. Now, we aren’t predicting where eurozone economic growth goes from here, but to us, these worries—especially in the wake of Q3’s largely better-than-expected growth—are a classic example of the “yah, but” attitude that typically coincides with skeptical sentiment. This isn’t a negative from an investment perspective, as it suggests stocks’ wall of worry has plenty of bricks left.

MarketMinder’s View: There are some political themes here, so a quick reminder MarketMinder is nonpartisan, preferring no party nor any politician. We highlight this piece as it shows why tariffs are overall economic negatives—especially for consumers and businesses in the imposing country. In this case, it is America’s farmers and manufacturers—some of the same folks tariffs purport to help—who are shouldering the burden. Not only have tariffs added costs for business owners (often passed to consumers or absorbed by businesses’ profit margins), the surrounding trade tensions have weighed on foreign demand. As noted early on here, a recent trade truce means US soybean exports to China will resume, a positive. But take a step back—American soybean farmers will send just 12 million tons to the Middle Kingdom this year, about half of 2024’s volume. China took its business elsewhere amid post-Liberation Day trade tensions, importing soybeans from Brazil and elsewhere in retaliation to US tariffs. Same with corn farmers. Along with that missed trade for US farmers, there are additional costs for business owners and consumers, which are seemingly bringing downstream consequences in other sectors, too. “A recent report by the Institute for Supply Management scrutinized the impact of the administration’s strategy. Executives across a variety of manufacturing fields noted declining customer demand and spoke of domestic production being more difficult than it had been. One said tariffs had made it ‘likely’ that they would shift some production overseas — the opposite of what the White House had hoped.” Now, markets are well aware of all this, and with stocks rebounding swiftly from the sharp correction after Liberation Day, it is clear businesses are overall resilient. Not every economic negative is bearish for stocks. But this explains why sentiment remains hyper focused on tariffs and why uncertainty lingers.