Last Week In Markets: Feb 21 - Feb 25 2022

Global equities ended the week moderately lower amid continued volatility as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With uncertainty swirling, many see the tragic human impact of this war and fear the potential broader political and military ramifications. But as an investment manager, we specifically focus on assessing this conflict’s likely impact on global stocks. There is a long history of regional conflicts, and none have been the proximate cause of a bear market. We believe this conflict and the resulting sanctions aren’t likely to prove different. For more, please see our 2/24/2022 commentary, “The Direct and Downstream Impact of the Latest Sanctions on Russia.”

the US, the second estimate of Q4 2021 GDP was revised slightly higher to 7.0% q/q growth (5.6% y/y). The February Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) came in at 57.5 and 56.7, respectively—both exceeding expectations. Readings over 50 indicate expansion. New home sales fell 4.5% m/m in January, better than consensus estimates. Preliminary January durable goods orders rose 1.6% m/m, beating expectations.

In the eurozone, the February Flash Markit Manufacturing PMI was 58.4, in line with estimates, while the Flash Services PMI was 55.8, higher than forecasts. January money supply (M3) increased 6.4% y/y, less than expected. Final core consumer prices was revised to 2.3% y/y, decelerating from the previous two months. In the UK, the February Flash Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeded expectations, coming in at 57.3. The February Flash Markit/CIPS Services PMI was also higher than expected at 60.8.

In Japan, the February Flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs fell to 52.9 and 42.7 from the previous readings of 55.4 and 48.6, respectively.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China report final February PMIs. The US releases final January durable goods orders. The eurozone and Japan announce January retail sales. The eurozone reports preliminary February inflation data. The UK releases January money supply (M4) figures. Japan reports preliminary January industrial production and unemployment data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet.  This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.

ⁱSources: Eagle PACE, FactSet, Bloomberg. Fisher Global Total Return results are preliminary and unaudited. They approximate our Private Client Group’s 100% global equity composite for the week ending 2/25/2022. Returns are calculated using representative portfolio performance. This representative portfolio information is derived from actual client portfolio returns net of fees. Fees are approximated by applying a 1% annual fee rate weekly. Individual account returns will vary. Specifically, other clients’ portfolio performance may differ given the various investment restrictions, cash requirements and other circumstances that can apply to particular clients. You can request returns for your specific account from your Investment Counselor.