Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: When a seemingly negative development looms (e.g., oil production disruption due to regional conflict), businesses don’t sit idly, twiddling their thumbs. They act preemptively to minimize the fallout. With concerns of US military action in the Middle East rising lately, Brent crude prices have ticked up slightly, from a low of $59.93 in mid-December to $70.91 today, per FactSet data. Now “Saudi Arabia is on course to export the most crude in almost three years this month, while Iran has been rapidly filling up tankers in recent days. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are set to climb almost 600,000 barrels a day from the same period in January, Vortexa Ltd. data show.” Producers in this historically volatile region understand conflict—while unpredictable—is frequent and know how to deal with it. The article points out Saudi Arabia also ramped up production before a US attack on Iran last year to ensure supply remained steady. Then, “Volumes fell in the weeks that followed when it became apparent there wouldn’t be widespread disruption.” And prices never soared or spiked to massively high heights. Fisher Investments founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher would call this “Anticipation is mitigation” in action, and it is one reason why global oil supply doesn’t necessarily plummet even if fighting breaks out and causes short-term disruptions.

MarketMinder’s View: As this piece mentions several specific companies, please note MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations, and our interest here is with the broader theme only. The Supreme Court may have struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, but there are several reasons why that won’t translate into a drop in prices for consumers. First, as we explained last week, logistics and other legal matters won’t allow for an immediate end to tariff collection (not to mention, not all tariffs are going away). Second, as this article highlights, many companies already paid the cost of tariffs, so any relief (including possible refunds) will likely go back to the business before perhaps being passed to consumers via discounts. As one apparel business owner described it, “‘We absorbed almost all of the cost of the tariffs; we don't think there's a reason to, like, pay anybody back,’ said Eva St. Clair, co-owner of apparel company Princess Awesome. The company, which in April brought one of the first legal challenges against the emergency tariffs, paid $30,000 in levies, and survived in part by setting up a tip jar for customers that raised $8,000, she said.” The Supreme Court’s ruling may have decreased a little bit of uncertainty, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter the broader economic backdrop, either.

MarketMinder’s View: For all of AI’s benefits, bad actors can use the technology for harmful purposes. The latest tactic explored here: Fraudsters claiming to be from the IRS and offering to “help” unsuspecting folks with “unresolved” tax issues. What makes this particular scam so insidious is the use of real people’s voices, more natural-sounding scripts and application of personal data—which makes the fraud sound legitimate. “If the message contains real information, such as the last four digits of your Social Security number, you might be inclined to believe that you are actually communicating with the IRS. Here’s what’s really scary about the use of AI. Criminals can target more people even faster using ‘vishing’ (voice phishing) techniques that involve making phone calls or leaving messages that pretend to be from a government agency or a reputable company. AI bots can run thousands of concurrent vishing calls, adapting their scripts in real time based on how you answer the phone.” The simplest defense: hang up on these calls, as the article recommends, and don’t respond to voicemail. Remember, the IRS won’t text or email you without your permission, and if you have actual tax problems it will send you a snail-mail letter first, so treat any unexpected communication skeptically.