Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: This piece name drops a few individual stocks in its discussion of 2025 Initial Public Offering (IPO) activity and expectations for 2026, so please note MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. Our interest here is more in the slight uptick in 2025 IPOs and the expectations for 2026, which are worth watching. Supply and demand for shares is always, at the highest level, what drives market movement. So you must factor in new issuance as a supply increase (a potential negative). To wit: “The 2025 haul would be a substantial increase over last year’s volume, but still well behind the $100 billion-plus years in 2020 and 2021 when easy money flowed during the Covid-19 pandemic. Few bankers are willing to predict a return to those levels next year, but they do see plenty of companies doing the lead-up work to go public in 2026.” That is worth watching, particularly since it is typical for IPO activity to pick up following strong returns, as firms try to capitalize on warmer sentiment and sell shares to the public at richer prices. Still, how IPOs are received matters, too. And in that vein: “The dismal debuts of StubHub Holdings Inc., Navan Inc. and Gemini Space Station Inc. have contributed to IPOs as an asset class underperforming the S&P 500 Index this year. That sits uneasily with the notion that companies that go public are supposed to have cheaper valuations than their listed peers.” So don’t rush to bearishness on the idea maybe IPO supply will jump.

MarketMinder’s View: The titular required withdrawals are, of course, required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs, which those 73 and older—and many beneficiaries who inherited an IRA—are legally required to take. Most must do so by December 31 or face penalties of up to 25% of the withdrawal’s value. Now, the data here are a little muddy, as they encompass only withdrawals from one custodian (Fidelity). RMDs weigh all traditional IRA assets, but you don’t need to draw from each account individually. So in theory, a person could fulfill their entire RMD from outside Fidelity, undercutting their tally. But still. There are 15 business days left in 2025. If you haven’t taken yours, we suggest getting that started now—especially if you are considering gifting your RMD to charity or taking a stock distribution to satisfy the amount.

MarketMinder’s View: “The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, published Tuesday by research group The Conference Board, fell 0.3% to 98.3 in September, after a similar 0.3% decrease in August. … The LEI fell by 2.1% in the six months between March and September, a faster rate of decline than its 1.3% dip over the previous six-month period, the report said.” Yep, the US LEI—a historically useful gauge to judge potential turning points in the economy—fell in September. But friends, two things. One, these data are for September—old. Two, the gauge hasn’t climbed this year and has declined in 40 of 45 months since hitting a high in December 2021. There have been zero recessions in this span. Why? The LEI is useful, but it overrates consumer sentiment and manufacturing industry data, which both have been locked in deep downtrends for years. The former don’t predict consumer behavior, though, and the latter represent a tiny slice of the economy vis a vis services.