Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US and Chinese April inflation data, UK Q1 GDP numbers and Japanese LEI readings.
In the US, April core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.9% m/m, above expectations. April retail sales were unchanged on a month-over-month basis but rose 51.2% y/y, largely reflecting a rebound from April 2020’s steep decline amid initial COVID-19 lockdowns. April industrial and manufacturing production increased 16.5% y/y and 23.0% y/y, respectively.
In the eurozone, data were light. March industrial production rose 10.9% y/y, missing expectations. In the UK, the first estimate of Q1 2021 GDP showed a 1.5% q/q or 6.1% y/y decline, in-line with expectations. Preliminary Q1 2021 imports and exports missed forecasts, falling 13.9% q/q and 7.5% q/q, respectively. March industrial and manufacturing production rose 3.6% y/y and 4.8% y/y, respectively—exceeding analyst forecasts.
In Japan, April bank lending increased 4.8% y/y. The March Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 1.1% from the prior month. In China, consumer prices increased 0.9% y/y in April, slightly below estimates. April outstanding loan growth and money supply (M2) increased 12.3% y/y and 8.1% y/y, respectively—both below expectations.
The Week Ahead:
The US, eurozone, UK, and Japan release preliminary May manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). Additionally, the US releases April LEI whilst the eurozone, UK and Japan report April inflation readings. The UK also announces April retail sales. Japan releases final March industrial production data and the first estimate of Q1 2021 GDP.