Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US Q1 GDP, US, eurozone, UK and Japan PMIs and Japanese trade data.
In the US, the second estimate of Q1 2022 GDP was revised slightly lower to -1.5% annualized. April new home sales declined 16.6% m/m. April durable goods orders increased 0.4% m/m, less than forecast. The May Flash Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 57.5 and 53.5, respectively (PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion). While headlines continue to warn of a possible global recession, economic data still generally don’t support that argument, in our view. The latest PMI readings imply ongoing growth—another overlooked positive amid today’s dreary sentiment backdrop. For more, please see our 5/26/2022 commentary “Surveys Still Say No to Global Recession.”
In the eurozone, the May Flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 54.4 and 56.3, respectively—below expectations but indicating expansion. April money supply (M3) increased 6.0% y/y. In the UK, the May Flash S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 54.6 and 51.8, respectively—both less than estimated.
In Japan, the May Flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 53.2 and 51.7, respectively—above expectations. April imports and exports increased 28.3% and 12.5% y/y, respectively.
The Week Ahead:
The US, eurozone, UK, Japan and China release May PMIs. The US releases May nonfarm payroll figures and unemployment data. The eurozone reports May consumer prices, April retail sales and unemployment figures. The UK releases April money supply (M4). Japan reports April industrial production, retail sales and unemployment numbers.
Tip of the Week:
US financial markets and Fisher Investments’ offices will be closed on Monday, May 30 in observance of Memorial Day. We will resume normal business hours on Tuesday, May 31.