Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: We think the opening here about sums up the lengths America’s trade partners are going to strengthen trade among themselves with their US exports newly taxed. “Canada is importing more cars from Mexico than from the US. China has snubbed American soybean farmers at harvest time and is buying from South American growers instead. India and China are resuming direct flights between the two countries and trading rare earths, ending years of frozen relations. The new contours of global commerce are starting to emerge as governments redraw trade alliances and companies seek other markets to avoid the highest US tariffs since the 1930s.” As the article goes on to document, this has helped the global economy, where “85% of global trade ... occurs outside the US,” defy expectations of a recession. Tariffs aren’t great, but while they may alter trade routes and destinations, they aren’t as disruptive as many make them out to be. As this article demonstrates, they hurt the imposer more than those imposed upon. The rest of the world isn’t without options as non-US nations deepen ties with one another—one reason we remain bullish globally.

MarketMinder’s View: Don’t look now, but there are only two and a half months left in the year, and some important dates are upon us. For instance, the enrollment period for 2026 Medicare coverage started today, and as this article details, there are some big changes worth noting—especially for those with private Medicare plans (known as Medicare Advantage). Because Medicare insurers are seeing higher costs, they are passing some of them on to plan participants. For example, “Medicare Advantage companies are increasing the maximum out-of-pocket cost in many of their plans. ... To figure out where the bite will come, you want to focus on the documents that describe each plan. For your current plan, you should have received an Annual Notice of Change, describing next year’s tweaks.” Not only could you be charged more, “At least 1.2 million Medicare Advantage enrollees are likely to lose their current plans next year because the plans are being eliminated, according to Healthpilot, a brokerage that offers Medicare plans. Big Medicare insurers are paring back their preferred provider organization designs, known as PPOs, while bolstering their more-restrictive health maintenance organization plans, known as HMOs. HMOs often don’t pay for care you get from doctors and hospitals outside their approved networks, which can be limited. PPOs typically give patients more freedom.” If you are tired of the runaround, like one Medicare Advantage user describes it, “consider opting for traditional Medicare, which tends to include nearly every hospital and doctor. But if you do, you will likely need a special product called a Medicare supplement, or Medigap, and that can be expensive, or even impossible, to get. If you don’t get a Medigap soon after you first age into Medicare at 65, you might be refused, or pay higher rates, based on your pre-existing health conditions.” Read on for more and remember: Forewarned is forearmed!

MarketMinder’s View: The Census Bureau’s retail sales report for September is likely to be delayed due to the government shutdown, but all isn’t lost! “The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary estimated that retail sales excluding autos and parts increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% last month after advancing 0.7% in August. ... CARTS is meant to offer an early read for the official monthly retail sales data, excluding automobiles, produced by the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau. The comprehensive retail sales report, scheduled for release on Thursday, has been delayed by the government shutdown, now in its third week. When adjusted for inflation, retail sales excluding autos are projected to have risen only 0.2% last month after increasing 0.3% in August. CARTS’ projections are broadly in line with most estimates from independent economists and other surveys.” Like the official report, this is backward looking, and retail sales don’t reflect most personal consumption expenditures (which are mainly services). But the other spending measures here are a helpful pencil sketch. Now, the piece spends a good amount of pixels on how “Retail sales and consumer spending growth continue to be driven by higher-income households,” but that is sociology, which markets don’t primarily dwell on. Stocks are cold-hearted and care more about the big picture: overall economic growth’s contribution to earnings over the next 3 to 30 months. Who is doing the spending isn’t as consequential for markets. For more on why, please see, “So Go the Top Earners, So Goes the Economy?”