Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including September US, UK, eurozone and Japan Manufacturing and Services PMIs, September US unemployment and August eurozone retail sales.
In the US, the September final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 52.0 and 49.3, respectively—both slightly exceeding expectations (readings above 50 indicate expansion). The September unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from a prior rate of 3.7%. September nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000—exceeding expectations and renewing concerns over future Fed rate hikes. While concerns of a heavy-handed Fed crippling an inflation-ridden economy continue to weigh on sentiment, as inflation gradually begins to resolve on its own, the reality that the Fed lacks the power to materially sway the economy should bring relief, in our view. For more, please see our 10/7/2022 commentary, “The Trouble With Projecting Fed Policy From September’s Jobs Data.”
In the eurozone, the September final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 48.4 and 48.8, respectively, slightly lower than expected. August retail sales fell 0.3% m/m—better than expected—and 2.0% y/y, worse than forecast. In the UK, the S&P Global/CIPS final Manufacturing PMI was 48.4, just missing consensus estimates. The S&P Global/CIPS final Services PMI was 50.0, higher than forecast.
In Asia, data were light. Japan’s September final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was 50.8, lower than expected, while the Services PMI was revised up to 52.2.
The Week Ahead:
The US releases September consumer prices and retail sales data. The eurozone and UK report August industrial production and the UK reports August manufacturing production. Japan and China report September money supply (M2). China reports September consumer prices and trade data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.