Last Week In Markets: Oct 10 - Oct14 2022

In the US, September retail sales were flat m/m and grew 8.2% y/y. September consumer prices increased 0.4% m/m and 8.2% y/y—both higher than expected. Meanwhile, core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.6% m/m and 6.6% y/y—the highest year-over-year reading since 1982. While rising prices continue to be painful, we believe various signs point to inflation moderating ahead—such as slowing money supply growth, falling commodity prices and easing supply chain bottlenecks. For more, please see our 10/13/2022 MarketMinder article “Our Perspective on Markets’ Rollercoaster Reaction to September Inflation Data.”

In the eurozone, August industrial production rose 1.5% m/m and 2.5% y/y—both higher than expected. In the UK, August industrial production decreased 1.8% m/m and 5.2% y/y, worse than expected. August manufacturing production decreased 1.6% m/m and 6.7% y/y, below estimates. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% in the 3 months ending in August.

In Japan, September money supply (M2) grew 3.3% y/y, lower than forecast. Bank lending grew 2.3% y/y in September. In China, September consumer prices increased 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y. Money supply (M2) increased 12.1% in September, in line with consensus forecasts. Bank lending grew 11.2% y/y in September.

The Week Ahead:

The US reports September Leading Economic Index (LEI) figures. China releases Q3 GDP. The US and China release September industrial production, while Japan releases August industrial production. The UK and China announce September retail sales, while Japan announces August retail sales. The UK and eurozone report September consumer price data. Japan reports September trade data.