Global equities rose 0.7% amid generally positive economic reports.
In the US, September core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 1.7% y/y, below expectations, while producer prices rose 2.6% y/y. September retail sales increased 1.6% m/m, matching estimates. In politics, President Trump issued an executive order further expanding the number of health insurance plans exempt from meeting minimum coverage requirements of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The White House also announced it is ending $7 billion in subsidies to insurers ruled illegal in 2016, as the subsidies were not appropriated by Congress. Both actions are likely only symbolic wins for the ACA repeal camp with minimal lasting stock market impact.
European data were largely positive. August eurozone industrial production rose 3.8% y/y, beating estimates. The European Central Bank announced the results of its annual bank stress tests to little fanfare. The fact this passed with little media attention is indicative of warming sentiment in the eurozone. In the UK, August manufacturing and industrial production beat expectations—rising 2.8% y/y and 1.6% y/y, respectively.
In Asia, September Japanese bank lending increased 3.0% y/y and its economy continues to show signs of improvement. Not only are banks starting to lend, but retails sales have held firm, exports have accelerated and industrial production is much improved—all coinciding with a general pick up in global trade. In China, September exports and imports rose 8.1% y/y and 18.7% y/y, respectively.
The US posts September industrial and manufacturing production figures. The eurozone releases August trade and September inflation data. The UK reports September inflation and retail sales. The year of falling political uncertainty abroad continues as well. On Sunday, Austria holds legislative elections. Wednesday, China’s ruling Communist Party begins its 19th National Congress. It’s expected a majority of the country’s Politiburo—the top decision-making body—will retire and new members will be selected. However, current party leader and President of China Xi Jinping likely receives another term.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.