Last Week In Markets: Sep 12 - Sep 16 2022

In the US, consumer prices slowed from 8.5% y/y in July to 8.3% y/y in August—missing expectations for a 8.1% y/y reading. August core consumer prices (excluding energy and food) rose 6.3% y/y, above expectations. August manufacturing production rose 3.3% y/y and 0.1% m/m, less than expected. August industrial production increased 3.7% y/y but decreased 0.2% m/m. Retail sales increased 9.1% y/y and 0.3% m/m in August, which many attributed to deeply discounted inventory—a sign of the “Pessimism of Disbelief,” in our view. For more, please see our 9/15/2022 commentary, “Parsing Pessimism on Retail Sales.”

In the eurozone, August consumer prices rose 9.1% y/y—matching expectations. August core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 4.3% y/y, in line with estimates. July industrial production fell 2.4% y/y and 2.3% m/m—below expectations. In the UK, August consumer prices rose 9.9% y/y—lower than expected. August core consumer prices (excluding energy and food) rose 6.3% y/y, in line with estimates. July manufacturing production rose 1.1% y/y and 0.1% m/m. July industrial production rose 1.1% y/y, but fell 0.3% m/m. August retail sales decreased 5.4% y/y and 1.6% m/m.

In Japan, final July industrial production contracted 2.0% y/y but rose 0.8% m/m. Preliminary August exports and imports increased 22.1% and 49.9% y/y, respectively. In China, August industrial production rose 4.2%y/y, beating expectations. Retail sales rose 5.4% y/y in August, better than anticipated.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan release September flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). Japan reports August consumer price data. The US announces August leading economic indicator (LEI) figures. The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan meet to set monetary policy.