Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Let us take a stroll down memory lane: In October 2025, the US and South Korea agreed to a “memorandum of understanding,” in which America would reduce most tariffs from 25% to 15% on Korean imports while Seoul pledged $350 billion in US investments, along with another $100 billion for American energy purchases. Since that pact was signed, no projects have emerged—frustrating US officials, with President Donald Trump threatening to hike tariffs again. Well, the latest ongoing talks indicate a pair of deals are close to the finish line, drawing some optimism. However, a look at the process highlights just how slow-moving and limited potential investment’s economic and market impact may be. “The South Korean government this year created a state-run corporation charged with evaluating potential U.S. investments for their commercial viability. A bilateral investment committee then reviews the projects, which would be financed by South Korean state funds, and makes recommendations to Trump. The investments are expected to unfold over a number of years. South Korea’s outlays, in any given year, are capped at $20 billion per the two countries’ agreement.” That $20 billion is astronomical for us normal folks, but when it comes to international trade, it is tiny (South Korean exports have reached nearly $710 billion year to date through August, according to the Korea Customs Service). Besides, most of these projects (nuclear power plants are one under consideration) will take eeeeeoooonnnnssss to complete. The idea this is a huge, near-term surge that should rate in your investment strategy is beyond a stretch.

MarketMinder’s View: As this article details, “August marks the fifth month in a row that China-to-U.S. shipments have increased due [to] both easier comparisons to last year, along with a more reasonable tariff environment for buyers and suppliers when compared to 2025.” As noted, a lot of that is tied to a low comparison base from a year ago, which skews the figure. Set this figure aside. Beyond that, China’s non-US trade is also booming. “Exports out of China are seeing broad-based strength across Asian markets, with the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Korea and Hong Kong seeing strong growth. ... Across the ASEAN contingency and Hong Kong, all of which serve as transshipment and re-export hubs, a chunk of the growth could reflect goods ultimately destined elsewhere.” With the US importing record amounts from ASEAN markets—and Mexico—it stands to reason Chinese wares are entering America via myriad methods (per FactSet, as Mexico’s imports from Asia also hit record levels). All this underscores how fears of tariffs and global trade’s demise remain greatly exaggerated.

MarketMinder’s View: In the wake of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” last year, an unintended consequence was the strengthening of economic ties among non-US nations—and this article details one of those relationships. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney seeks to deepen his country’s alliance with Europe “to cover all areas of the relationship, including trade, security, supply chains and critical raw materials, with the goal of getting as close as legally possible to EU membership without actually joining.” Canada’s escalating spat with America may seem distressing, but it is 1) small potatoes and 2) not the only game in town. As this shows, there are other fish in the sea. Intriguingly, on this front, “The two sides have also discussed working together through the Trans-Pacific Partnership [TPP], a multi-country trade agreement of which Canada is a member.” While the EU isn’t a member of the (CP)TPP, the UK is, and the EU has launched talks to cooperate and coordinate with the CPTPP, both of which could be precedent for the EU joining. Now, nothing here is likely to move rapidly—there will likely be more talks, discussions and summits to come—but trade reality outside America is sunnier than surmised—one reason why non-US stocks, including Canadian, continue to lead year to date (per FactSet).